A severe heatwave across Europe in June has led to a significant reduction in grain crop yields, cutting more than €2 billion from the value of production, according to recent analyses. France and Hungary were particularly affected by the extreme temperatures, which disrupted critical growth phases for key grains including wheat, barley, and maize.
The heatwave, marking the hottest June on record in western Europe, saw temperatures soar up to 43°C in France and above 40°C in Hungary. These conditions struck at a crucial stage of grain development, especially during kernel filling in central and southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary. The spring barley crop was more severely impacted than winter barley, which had largely matured prior to the rise in temperatures.
European grain traders’ association Coceral reported that forecasts for grain production across the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) fell by nearly 9 million tonnes within a month of the heatwave. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimated the lost production’s value at approximately €2.1 billion, equating to a 5% decrease based on 2025 production value projections.
Maize, primarily used as livestock feed, accounted for about half of the forecast reductions. Coceral lowered its EU and UK maize production estimate from 57.2 million tonnes to 52.7 million tonnes, with France and Hungary experiencing the sharpest declines during the pollination phase. This decline is expected to increase reliance on maize imports from major exporters such as Ukraine and Brazil.
France bore the brunt of the losses, with a forecast cut of 4.1 million tonnes valued at around €891 million. The maize forecast alone was reduced by 3.35 million tonnes, falling below even the diminished levels observed during last year’s drought. Hungary’s grain output was also downgraded by 2.4 million tonnes, valued at about €444 million, alongside notable cuts in Spain and Germany.
Farmers face additional challenges as falling domestic prices in Hungary, influenced by cheaper grain from the Black Sea region, may limit income recovery despite reduced yields. Conversely, some French producers could benefit from higher market prices due to the tighter supply. Tom Lancaster, an analyst at ECIU, remarked that the losses would impact farmer incomes while also posing risks to European food security.
The financial figures represent the market value of production removed from forecasts rather than direct farming profits. Some producers may still offset losses through higher prices or pre-sold grain contracts. Meanwhile, slight upward revisions in harvest forecasts for Bulgaria, Romania, Italy, and Finland have reduced the overall estimated value loss across Europe to approximately €1.79 billion, with gross losses ranging between €2 billion and €2.3 billion based on varying price assumptions.
These agricultural setbacks coincide with ongoing discussions among EU governments regarding the future of the Common Agricultural Policy. Théo Paquet, a senior policy officer at the European Environmental Bureau, criticized current subsidy frameworks, stating that instead of fostering climate resilience, they continue to support practices that exacerbate environmental crises.