Europe experienced a significant reduction in grain production following a record-breaking heatwave in June, which has been estimated to have caused losses exceeding €2 billion. The heatwave, which brought the hottest June recorded in western Europe, with temperatures rising about 3°C above the 1991-2020 average, severely affected crops across the European Union and the United Kingdom.

According to an analysis by the European grain traders’ association Coceral and the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), almost 9 million tonnes of grain production were removed from forecasts for 2023 in the month after the heatwave. The crops primarily affected include wheat, barley, maize, and oats. These losses represent roughly 5 percent of the expected 2025 production value. The timing of the heatwave was especially damaging, coinciding with critical stages of crop development such as the "grain fill" period for wheat and the pollination period for maize.

France and Hungary were among the worst affected countries. France’s forecast for grain production was cut by 4.1 million tonnes, equating to an estimated value loss of approximately €891 million. Much of this was due to a lower maize yield, with expectations falling to 9.4 million tonnes—a level below the previous drought-impacted harvest of 2022. Hungary’s maize and wheat output also suffered, with a reduction of 2.4 million tonnes valued around €444 million. Spain and Germany similarly reported declines of about 1.4 million tonnes and close to that amount, respectively.

On the ground, farmers such as Benoît Merlo, an organic cereal and cattle producer in eastern France, described the severity of the conditions. Despite efforts over the past decade to adapt to hotter and drier climates through cover crops and crop rotation, the sustained high temperatures—exceeding 38°C for several weeks—caused significant crop failures. Merlo projected yield losses of 50 percent or more for several crops, including soya.

The reduction in maize output—critical for livestock feed—has raised concerns about supply security. The European Union is a net importer of maize in years of poor harvests, so the shortfall could increase demand for imports from countries such as Ukraine and Brazil. A reduced French harvest is also expected to limit wheat exports to regions in northern and western Africa. Higher feed costs are likely to impact livestock producers in coming months.

Market dynamics have varied between countries. In Hungary, falling producer prices amid cheaper Black Sea grain imports have compounded farmers’ difficulties, as they face losses without price support. Conversely, some French producers might benefit from price increases. The ECIU emphasizes that the €2 billion figure estimates the lost market value of production and does not directly measure farmers’ profit margins, which could be influenced by factors including pre-sold contracts and price fluctuations.

Despite the widespread losses, some countries including Bulgaria, Romania, Italy, and Finland have seen upward revisions to their harvest forecasts, slightly tempering the overall impact. Nevertheless, the consequences of the heatwave add urgency to ongoing discussions within the EU about the future of the Common Agricultural Policy, particularly regarding the support of climate resilience. Critics argue that current subsidies often maintain practices that may exacerbate climate risks rather than mitigate them.

The heatwave has also highlighted vulnerabilities in European food security, with analysts warning that farmers’ incomes will be under pressure and that similar climate-related shocks may become more frequent. Dry conditions have also been reported across much of the UK, particularly in East Anglia and Southeast England, further underscoring the broader regional effects of extreme weather events this year.