A decade ago, groundbreaking agreements were signed in Iran aimed at reopening the country’s oil and gas sector to international firms, including Shell. These accords, witnessed by Tehran audiences and global media, were designed to revive Iran’s aging energy infrastructure and boost exports. However, the anticipated collaboration stalled, largely due to geopolitical shifts surrounding the 2015 nuclear deal.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), brokered under former U.S. President Barack Obama, initially lifted sanctions and opened pathways for engagement with Iran’s energy sector. Yet, the deal floundered when President Donald Trump withdrew the United States during his first term, leading to a collapse in diplomatic trust and renewed tensions between Tehran and Washington.
The former British ambassador to Iran, who served in Tehran following the JCPOA’s implementation, reflects on these developments with a sense of déjà vu. He recalls arriving in the Iranian capital at the end of 2015, a time marked by cautious optimism but underscored by deep political complexities. His observations highlight Iran as a country with a rich strategic memory and a multifaceted society, challenging simplistic views of it merely as a regional threat or problem to be managed.
Shortly after his arrival, the ambassador witnessed the lifting of UN sanctions firsthand during a small ceremony at the British embassy. It became clear that many within the Iranian leadership viewed the JCPOA as only a starting point, considering broader diplomatic and economic initiatives beyond the deal’s immediate framework. Not long after, Iran’s then-foreign minister Javad Zarif called the diplomatic community to outline his government’s ambitious plans, illustrating a desire to engage beyond the confines of the nuclear agreement.
Despite these intentions, the erosion of the JCPOA and the imposition of new U.S. sanctions under Trump reversed initial progress, plunging the bilateral relationship into a period of mistrust and conflict. As efforts continue under the current U.S. administration to restore or revise agreements with Iran, the ambassador notes that mutual suspicion remains a significant barrier. Both sides face the challenge of overcoming a decade of setbacks and hostility to create a stable, workable framework that addresses not only nuclear concerns but Iran’s broader place in regional and global politics.
The ambassador’s experience underscores the complexities of diplomacy with Iran, revealing the interplay of strategic calculations and domestic politics on both sides. Moving forward, any successful negotiations will likely need to reconcile these realities while rebuilding confidence eroded by years of diplomatic disengagement and confrontation.