After nearly nine years in exile, former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont is poised to return to Catalonia following a pending decision by Spain’s constitutional court expected on October 6. The court is set to determine whether the charge of misuse of public funds against Puigdemont falls under a 2024 amnesty law enacted by the Spanish government, which would allow him to return without facing arrest.

Puigdemont fled Spain in 2017 to avoid prosecution related to his involvement in an unauthorized bid for Catalan independence, which led to prison sentences for nine of his colleagues ranging up to 13 years. Despite the severity of these sentences, all jailed leaders were released within three years.

The region Puigdemont left has undergone significant political and social shifts during his absence. Since 2024, the Socialists’ party of Catalonia (PSC) has governed the region, marking the first time since 1980 that a non-nationalist party controls the regional government. Under the leadership of Salvador Illa, a former Spanish health minister, the PSC has fostered a cooperative relationship with the national government, now also led by the Socialist Workers’ party.

Demographically, Catalonia has seen a notable increase in its foreign-born population, rising from 13.8% in 2017 to 18.7% today. This change is particularly pronounced in Barcelona, where immigrants constitute 32% of the population, and up to 50% among residents aged 12 to 35. The growing diversity challenges longstanding nationalist notions of Catalan identity, once defined simply by residency and work in the region.

The Catalan independence movement itself appears to have fragmented. The pro-independence party Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia), led by Puigdemont, has recently taken positions, such as opposing progressive housing reforms, that critics say may alienate younger voters concerned with economic issues like jobs and housing affordability. Meanwhile, a far-right nationalist party, Aliança Catalana, has emerged, advocating exclusionary policies targeting Muslims, including those born in Spain, reflecting a shift toward ethnonationalist rhetoric on the political fringes.

Support for outright independence remains below a majority, lingering in the low 40% range, in contrast to the heightened mobilization seen a decade ago. Many younger residents prioritize practical concerns over sovereignty, and the region’s increasingly multicultural and multilingual character further complicates the once dominant narrative of a distinct Catalan nation defined by language and heritage.

Puigdemont’s vision of an independent Catalonia, grounded in historical grievance against Spain’s treatment of the region, continues to resonate with a segment of the population. However, evolving demographics and political realities suggest his cause may face greater challenges in mobilizing widespread support than in the past. As Catalonia becomes more diverse and interconnected, questions about the future of nationalist aspirations and the definition of Catalan identity remain unresolved.