Expanded playoffs make trades harder to predict

By the Editorial Team · Thursday, July 16, 2026

As the August 3 MLB trade deadline nears, 23 teams remain within four games of a playoff spot, creating a highly competitive and uncertain market for potential player trades, including key pitchers like Tarik Skubal. Detroit's recent surge and the close wild card race highlight how team performances and strategic moves in the coming weeks will crucially impact postseason chances.

As Major League Baseball approaches the August 3 trade deadline, the expanded playoff format is complicating predictions about potential player transactions. Heading into the second half of the season, 23 of the 30 teams remain within four games of a playoff spot, underscoring the increased competitiveness and uncertainty in the trade market.

Among the most closely watched potential trade candidates is Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner and left-handed pitcher for the Detroit Tigers. Skubal, 29, has a 2-3 record with a 3.62 ERA in six starts following a May 6 surgery to remove a loose body from his pitching elbow. His return to the mound occurred on June 13 after undergoing a procedure using the NanoNeedle scope 2.0, a minimally invasive tool performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Skubal can become a free agent after this season’s World Series, making him a valuable asset for teams seeking to bolster their rotations.

Detroit’s season has seen a remarkable turnaround. The Tigers began June with a 22-38 record, matching some of the worst starts in MLB history for a team that would later reach the postseason. Since then, they have posted a 22-14 record, closing the gap to within 3½ games of the final American League wild card spot. Their performance leading up to the trade deadline will be critical in determining whether they will be buyers or sellers in the market.

In addition to Skubal, other pitchers like Minnesota’s Joe Ryan and New York Mets’ Freddy Peralta are also considered potential trade candidates. The Mets may also explore deals involving left-handed relievers Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter, while the San Francisco Giants could look to move second baseman Luis Arraez.

The only teams holding division leads greater than three games are the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are ahead by 11½ in the National League West, and the Milwaukee Brewers, leading the National League Central by five games. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts noted the unpredictability of the season’s second half, pointing to the possibility of mid-tier teams surging while some frontrunners may falter.

The Philadelphia Phillies have experienced a significant turnaround since the dismissal of manager Rob Thomson in late April and the installation of Don Mattingly. After starting 9-19 post-coaching change, they have rebounded with a 44-24 record and currently trail the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves by two games. Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper attributed much of this success to the return of Zack Wheeler, who was sidelined last year due to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Wheeler has posted a 10-1 record with a 2.13 ERA since rejoining the rotation.

Similarly, the Boston Red Sox have improved under interim manager Chad Tracy following the firing of Alex Cora after a 10-17 start. Boston has gone 36-31 since and closed the first half of the season with a 9-0 road trip, their best since 1977. Despite holding a sub-.500 record at 46-48, the Red Sox remain in contention, trailing by just half a game for the final American League wild card spot. Tracy credited improvements to the team’s overall approach, including better plate discipline and scoring early in games, which has supported their starting pitchers.

With the playoff race tightly packed and multiple teams poised to make moves, the upcoming weeks promise to be pivotal in shaping postseason rosters and aspirations.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.