A leading expert on false confessions has questioned the interpretation of handwritten notes attributed to Lucy Letby, the neonatal nurse convicted of murders and assaults at the Countess of Chester Hospital. Professor Gisli Gudjonsson, who has decades of experience studying false confessions and psychological pressures on suspects, said the notes should not be regarded as literal admissions of guilt.
The notes, which were seized during police searches of Letby’s home, contain phrases such as “I am evil I did this” and “I killed them on purpose because I’m not good enough to care for them and I am a horrible evil person.” Prosecutors relied on these writings as part of their case against Letby, who was tried at Manchester Crown Court on charges of deliberately harming and killing babies in her care.
However, Professor Gudjonsson told a documentary that the notes must be considered in their entirety rather than in isolated parts. He stated that these messages should not be interpreted as a straightforward confession to murder. “If I had been instructed by the defence, I would have recommended challenging the admissibility of that note,” he said. Gudjonsson’s insights come amid renewed scrutiny of Letby’s case and reflect his substantial influence in addressing wrongful convictions in the UK.
The notes themselves were reportedly a mixture of contradictory and fragmented statements, including passages such as “I haven’t done anything wrong,” “slander,” “discrimination,” and “I can’t do this anymore,” complicating efforts to understand their true meaning.
Meanwhile, questions have also been raised regarding the handling of statistical evidence in the investigation. Professor Jane Hutton, a distinguished medical statistician, was engaged by Cheshire Police in 2018 to analyze the odds of a single staff member being present during multiple neonatal deaths and collapses. When asked if the probability could be expressed as a specific figure such as “one in a million,” Hutton advised that a comprehensive statistical review needed to consider all factors, including the babies’ medical conditions and the unit’s overall performance, rather than focusing on one individual from the outset.
Despite agreements to provide consultancy services and fees, the proposed wider statistical analysis was reportedly not undertaken at that time. Police renewed contact with Hutton in 2021 after Letby had been charged, but a planned video discussion was cancelled following consultations with prosecutors. An internal police email indicated that prosecutors opposed further exploration of statistical lines of inquiry, instructing officers to halt such investigations.
Hutton criticized the investigation’s approach, saying it “made just about every mistake in the book.” She pointed to early data showing that suspicious events had been excluded from key analyses and highlighted inaccuracies in claims about Letby’s presence during incidents. According to Hutton, the data used to suggest Letby was invariably on duty during deaths included cases in which she was not present, undermining the reliability of those statistical assertions.
As Letby’s conviction and the prosecution’s evidence continue to be reevaluated, the input of experts like Professor Gudjonsson and Professor Hutton contributes to ongoing debates surrounding the case’s evidentiary foundations and investigative procedures.