Victorian Deputy Premier Ben Carroll’s recent public interaction with Premier Jacinta Allan has complicated speculation about a potential leadership challenge within the state Labor Party.

Carroll appeared alongside Allan at a press conference on Monday, an event viewed by some as a strategic move by Allan’s office to project unity. However, the appearance, marked by an awkward moment widely interpreted as Carroll failing to “look Allan in the eye,” has intensified debate over his leadership ambitions.

Last week, Carroll had delivered a series of confident statements suggesting Victorian Labor could still secure victory in the next election by adopting an insurgent approach. Despite this momentum, his subdued demeanor on Monday signaled a possible retreat. Sources inside the party indicate that while some MPs desire a change in leadership, there remains uncertainty about how to proceed with any challenge to Allan.

Carroll reportedly awaits a delegation of party members to deliver a collective message to Allan for her to step aside, rather than initiating a direct confrontation himself. However, this path is complicated by the historical context of Victorian Labor’s leadership. Since Steve Bracks replaced John Brumby in 1999 without a formal spill, no sitting leader has been successfully challenged in the state caucus—a consequence of the strong electoral footing maintained during Daniel Andrews’s premiership.

Party insiders suggest that Carroll’s public displays of loyalty to Allan have diminished the likelihood of an imminent leadership bid. The window for a challenge is narrowing, with the Victorian parliament set to recess on Thursday for the six-week winter break. Many within Labor argue that if a leadership transition were to occur, it would have needed to happen prior to the parliamentary adjournment.

Despite ongoing dissatisfaction with Allan’s public approval ratings, she remains widely regarded among Labor colleagues as the party’s most effective public performer. Monday’s press conference reinforced her standing, emphasizing the internal pressure for the party to consolidate behind her leadership and focus on the upcoming election campaign.

As uncertainty lingers, Victorian Labor faces the task of navigating internal divisions while preparing for a critical electoral test later this year.