Fantasy Island: Some vets rate higher than expected, not all rookie RBs have rosy outlook

By the Editorial Team · Sunday, August 2, 2026

The Draft Value Quotient (DVQ) model has highlighted unexpected player valuations for the 2026 NFL Draft, notably elevating Alvin Kamara and Travis Kelce while casting doubt on the projected roles of rookies like Jeremiayah Love. These findings suggest that traditional draft expectations may be misleading, emphasizing a data-driven approach to better gauge player value and future impact.

As the 2026 NFL Draft approaches, an advanced analytical model known as the Draft Value Quotient (DVQ) has revealed notable insights and unexpected evaluations for several players, particularly in the running back and tight end positions. Now in its 12th season, this revamped formula aims to reduce subjectivity in player projections by relying strictly on data-driven metrics.

One significant observation involves Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints. Despite rumors suggesting that the arrival of Travis Etienne Jr. would diminish Kamara’s role, the DVQ assigns Kamara a surprisingly high rating of 69.1, compared to his average draft position (ADP) of 156.3. Etienne’s past tenure in Jacksonville saw him struggle to maintain a consistent lead over teammates Tank Bigsby and Bhayshul Tuten, which raises questions about his ability to command a true feature back role in New Orleans. Moreover, Kamara’s decision to sign a one-year contract extension indicates he may still have an active role rather than being relegated to the bench.

Bhayshul Tuten, now positioned as a primary back for the Jacksonville Jaguars following Etienne's departure, also emerges as an intriguing prospect. With a DVQ score of 45.5 and an ADP of 60.0, Tuten appears undervalued. While he is expected to share some carries with Chris Rodriguez Jr., the model suggests Tuten’s role will be more prominent, given Rodriguez’s status as a lesser threat for volume. Tuten’s consistent involvement last season gives him an edge in assuming the lead back duties for the Jaguars.

Conversely, Jeremiayah Love, who was selected third overall by the Arizona Cardinals, faces skepticism despite a relatively strong DVQ score of 61.2. His ADP at 24.8 contrasts with camp reports hinting that Love may not receive the workload anticipated by fantasy managers. The presence of injured veterans James Conner and Trey Benson, coupled with the offseason signing of Tyler Allgeier—known for limiting Bijan Robinson’s touches in Atlanta—raises concerns about volume distribution. The Cardinals are perceived as potentially hesitant to fully commit to their young running back, possibly favoring experienced but injury-prone options and backups.

At the tight end position, Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs continues to defy age-related decline expectations. Kelce’s DVQ rating of 79.9 significantly exceeds his ADP of 105.2, reflecting sustained value derived from past peak performances, ongoing quarterback and coaching continuity, and a relative lack of alternative target options on the offense. While Kelce’s production may not replicate his prime years, the model suggests he remains poised to outperform his draft slot.

These data-driven assessments signal that the 2026 draft class will challenge conventional wisdom, particularly in evaluating veteran running backs and rookie prospects. The updated DVQ model emphasizes the importance of looking beyond popular narratives to uncover potential discrepancies between perceived and projected value. Further positional analyses are expected to follow in this ongoing series.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.