The upcoming Makerfield by-election on June 18 has become a focal point of political tension, with Labour, Reform UK, Restore Britain, and the Green Party each positioning themselves amid shifting alliances and leadership challenges.

Labour’s Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham launched his campaign last Friday, positioning himself as a significant contender and a potential challenger to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. Burnham’s candidacy has sparked discussions about leadership within the party. Labour MP Jess Phillips, speaking at the Hay Festival, expressed her belief that the Prime Minister will need to step down regardless of the by-election outcome. Phillips, who recently resigned as safeguarding minister, stated she expects a leadership contest whether Burnham wins the seat or not. “I imagine Andy Burnham will win it, and I imagine then that the Prime Minister changes,” she said, while acknowledging her limited familiarity with the local electorate.

The Labour Party has faced mounting pressure following poor results in recent local elections, with numerous MPs calling for Starmer’s resignation. Meanwhile, the Green Party confirmed it will contest the Makerfield seat despite suggestions to stand aside for Burnham to consolidate the anti-Reform vote. Ellie Chowns, the Greens’ Westminster leader, said her party would not fully commit resources but affirmed their engagement in the campaign. Chris Kennedy was initially announced as the Green candidate but withdrew soon after, citing personal reasons.

Adding complexity to the race is a sharp dispute involving Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage over Musk’s endorsement of Restore Britain’s candidate Rupert Lowe. Polls suggest Restore Britain could capture up to 7% of the vote, a potentially significant figure in what is expected to be a close race between Burnham and Reform candidate Robert Kenyon.

Musk shared a social media post supporting Restore Britain, prompting a strong rebuke from Farage, who accused Musk of attempting to fragment the right-wing vote. Farage, who was previously allied with Musk before falling out amid internal political disputes, criticized Musk’s backing of a small party he described as “one man with a social media account.” He suggested Burnham would benefit from the division within the right-wing vote.

Restore Britain campaigns on policies including mass remigration and increasing energy availability. Party leader Rupert Lowe has described the group as facing hostility from the political establishment, claiming attempts to silence them. Lowe framed Musk’s support as a sign of momentum against entrenched powers, asserting that Makerfield could demonstrate the possibility of “real change” and the party’s aim to “restore our country” rather than maintain the existing system.

The June 18 by-election is thus shaping up as a contest not just for a parliamentary seat but also as a proxy battle reflecting broader struggles within British politics over leadership, party unity, and the future direction of the right and left political factions.