Nigel Farage is confronting one of the most challenging periods since resuming leadership of Reform UK ahead of the 2024 general election, following a significant setback in the recent Makerfield parliamentary contest. The result not only delivered a decisive victory to Labour’s Andy Burnham but also exposed critical weaknesses within Reform UK, many of which observers attribute to Farage’s style of leadership.

Farage’s tenure at the party’s helm is characterised by an autocratic approach, with key decisions—such as candidate selection—left solely to him. This centralised control came under scrutiny after the endorsement of Robert Kenyon, a working-class candidate with local ties, whose past sexist and inappropriate social media posts sparked controversy shortly after his selection. Despite the emergence of damaging content, neither Kenyon issued a public apology nor was he removed as candidate, a misstep that some critics say further damaged Reform’s credibility. The backlash highlighted a pronounced gender divide among voters, with male constituents more forgiving of Kenyon’s behaviour than women.

Industry analysts describe Farage’s leadership as a “personal dictatorship,” reflecting his frustration with previous experiences leading Ukip, where decision-making was more collective but also more cumbersome. Calls for reform within Reform UK include greater delegation of authority and a transparent, rigorous candidate vetting process. However, the party also faces a shortage of high-calibre candidates willing to align with its platform, with many defectors from the Conservative Party viewed as fringe figures.

Compounding Reform’s difficulties is the emergence of a new political rival in Restore Britain, led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe. Lowe, who split from Reform following internal disputes and legal controversies, has positioned his party further to the right, advocating for stringent immigration policies and a referendum on capital punishment. In the Makerfield election, Restore secured 3,111 votes—nearly 7% of the total vote—surpassing the combined totals of the Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Green candidates. While Restore’s presence did not alter the outcome, its growing influence poses a serious threat to Reform’s voter base.

Restore Britain plans to contest the upcoming mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester with Marlon Scott West, a campaigner focused on child abuse issues, further energising their profile. With substantial funding, strong social media capabilities, and support from high-profile backers like Elon Musk, Restore Britain is expected to continue siphoning support from Reform.

Farage’s personal credibility has also come under fire, notably due to the so-called Harborne affair involving a £5 million donation, raising questions about the party’s financial connections and Farage’s relationship with wealthy donors. This contrasts sharply with the economic circumstances of many Reform voters, who have supported the party amid growing financial concerns.

Relations with colleagues have been historically fraught for Farage, with a string of high-profile disputes dating back years. His ongoing rivalry with Lowe epitomises this pattern, contributing to internal instability at a critical juncture.

Despite the setback in Makerfield and challenges from Labour’s rising star Andy Burnham, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, and the Greens under Zack Polanski, Reform UK remains ahead in national polls and financially robust. Nevertheless, the combination of Farage’s leadership style, competition from Restore Britain, and shifting voter loyalties has introduced uncertainty about the party’s long-term prospects.

Observers note that Farage, who is now 62, may face mounting pressures that could lead to his departure before the next general election expected by mid-2029. His previous resignations from leadership roles at Ukip and the Brexit Party underscore the possibility that his tenure at Reform may also be limited. Farage’s departure would represent a significant loss for the party, given his role in revitalising its profile and appeal in recent years.