In Odisha’s Ganjam district, farmers are preparing for a challenging agricultural season amid signs of a strengthening El Niño phenomenon that threatens to disrupt the monsoon’s arrival and intensity. Traditionally, the Raja festival, celebrated from June 14 to 16, marks the start of the rainy season and the beginning of crop sowing. This year, however, the festival coincided with unusually clear skies and significant rainfall deficits, leaving fields dry and sowing delayed.
By the end of June, rainfall in Odisha was 40% below normal, continuing a pattern of drought that has affected the state at least 19 times in the past five decades. Despite these conditions, farmers in the village of Laxmipur cautiously planted paddy seeds in late June, hopeful that rain would come in time to support germination. Local farmer Mangala Sabar, 45, recalled previous El Niño years when repeated failed transplanting efforts resulted in total crop loss, underscoring the vulnerability of the community to climate variability.
Experts highlight that drought is a familiar hazard for Odisha's agricultural communities. Chandni Singh, a climate adaptation researcher and lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, noted that while recurrent droughts are well known, the critical factors at stake are water security and predictability of weather patterns. Liby Johnson, executive director of Gram Vikas—an organization supporting rural development in Odisha—echoed these concerns, emphasizing that long-term resilience depends heavily on managing these uncertainties.
To support farmers, Gram Vikas has installed 25 automatic weather stations across the region. One such station sits on the roof of Mangala Sabar’s home, where a seven-day rainfall forecast is posted daily in the local Odia language. The forecast data, combined with processed weather information sent to villagers via WhatsApp, allows farmers to make more informed decisions—though challenges remain in translating data into actionable steps.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also intensified efforts by providing up to 30-day advance forecasts for monsoon arrivals and issuing advisories to farmers, including recommendations to delay sowing, select drought-resilient crop varieties, and adopt less water-intensive plants. These tailored warnings have reached more than 38 million farmers through SMS and phone notifications, including those in Odisha.
Despite the availability of forecasts and advisories, uptake and trust within farming communities remain limited. Singh pointed out that data alone often does not drive farmers’ decisions, particularly when they face daily uncertainties and risks. The complex realities of rural farming require more than information—they need practical, reliable support systems.
While recent bursts of heavy rainfall in some parts of India have reduced the overall monsoon deficit to about 21%, concerns persist as the El Niño event strengthens and its full impact remains uncertain. Nonetheless, farmers like Mangala Sabar in Odisha continue their work with determined pragmatism. “How can we know if it will rain adequately or not? There is no point in worrying about that. We will sow the seeds regardless because we are farmers,” he said, reflecting a resilient attitude in the face of mounting climatic challenges.