Farmers across the United States continue to face significant challenges despite recent diplomatic progress toward ending hostilities in the Persian Gulf. Although a new U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire offers some relief by easing fuel and fertilizer prices, the broader agricultural sector remains under strain due to drought, trade disruptions, and market consolidation.
The deal, signed this week by President Donald Trump, follows a period of restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway for global oil and fertilizer exports. The reopening has contributed to a recent decline in diesel and urea fertilizer prices, which had surged amid the conflict. Diesel prices, for instance, have not been this low since mid-March. However, industry experts caution that supply and pricing imbalances will persist, with Josh Linville, vice president of StoneX, noting that the “very big wound” to fertilizer markets requires time to heal.
Farmers like Jeff Tyson, who operates a diversified farm near Nashville, North Carolina, underscore the ongoing economic difficulties. Tyson, a fourth-generation grower of soybeans, cotton, sweet potatoes, tobacco, corn, and sunflowers, reports that rising costs have outpaced revenues this year. He attributes part of the agricultural sector’s distress to government policies, including tariffs and tax burdens, which have compounded the effects of drought and conflict. “There’s no joy left in this farm,” said Tyson, who noted that his family’s financial pressures have led him to advise his daughters to seek opportunities outside farming.
The Trump administration’s February decision to join Israel in striking Iran escalated tensions that worsened market conditions already fragile due to the U.S.-China trade war. Soybean producers have endured four consecutive years of losses, with export sales to China plunging to about $3 billion in 2025 from nearly $18 billion at the 2022 peak. Tariffs on steel and aluminum have also increased equipment costs, further squeezing farmers’ margins. Although the president has recently reduced some tariffs on agricultural machinery and pledged $12 billion in farm aid, many producers remain pessimistic.
Multiple surveys reflect this disillusionment among rural voters, a key constituency for Trump and the Republican Party. A Reuters-Ipsos poll showed a significant decline in support for the president’s economic policies among rural Americans, shifting from a modest majority approval to a 61 percent disapproval rate. Likewise, a Purdue University-CME Group survey revealed a drop in agricultural producers’ optimism about the country’s direction.
Other farmers echo Tyson’s concerns. Michael McPherson, who cultivates 1,000 acres of crops and livestock in North Carolina, described record drought conditions and sharp fuel price hikes that forced him to absorb increased costs. Gary Hendrix, a large-scale grower near Charlotte, highlighted the challenges posed by the market dominance of a few fertilizer suppliers. Mosaic and Nutrien together control most of the phosphate and potash fertilizer market, drawing scrutiny from federal antitrust agencies.
While Hendrix appreciates some of the Trump administration's trade efforts, he remains wary of price manipulation risks amid industry consolidation and expresses mixed feelings about the upcoming midterm elections. “He’s done some things that have really been a benefit to ag, and he’s tried some other things that haven’t quite worked,” Hendrix said.
As U.S.-Iran peace talks continue in Switzerland, the agricultural sector looks to a future where external geopolitical pressures may lessen. Still, for many farmers, persistent environmental challenges, trade uncertainties, and concentrated market power continue to make profitability elusive.