Fifa is considering a revision to the penalty shoot-out procedure for the knockout stages of the current World Cup, proposing a single coin toss to determine either which team takes the first penalty or which side plays in front of their home crowd. The change would streamline the existing rules, which currently involve two separate coin tosses: one to decide the order of kicking and another to select the end in which the shoot-out takes place.
Discussions between Fifa officials and the International Football Association Board (Ifab), football’s lawmaking body, have been underway despite the tournament already being in progress. If adopted, the rule change would need to be confirmed before the first knockout match scheduled for Sunday evening in order to be applied throughout the remainder of the competition. Fifa supports the adjustment on the grounds that it could enhance fairness during shoot-outs.
Under current regulations, it is possible for one team to win both coin tosses, securing both the advantage of kicking first and the benefit of shooting before its home supporters. This scenario played out recently in the Champions League final when Paris Saint-Germain chose to kick first in front of their fans against Arsenal. The proposed single coin toss would grant the winner the initial choice, with the other team receiving the alternative option, thereby preventing one side from having double advantage.
Research on the impact of kicking order on shoot-out success is mixed. A 2023 study by academics from New York University, King’s College London, and Wilfrid Laurier University found that teams kicking first have a 22 percent higher likelihood of winning. According to this research, the privilege of choosing to kick first can provide a significant edge. Conversely, a 2021 study published in the journal Games and Economic Behavior suggested the advantage to the team kicking first is much smaller, estimating a 1 to 2 percent difference.
The debate over fairness in penalty shoot-outs continues among experts and officials. David Dein, former Arsenal and Football Association vice-chairman, has previously recommended that penalties be taken simultaneously at both ends of the pitch to eliminate bias linked to kicking order or crowd influence.
Recent high-profile shoot-outs illustrate the complexities involved. In the 2022 World Cup final, France won the coin toss and took the first penalty, but Argentina ultimately secured victory in the shoot-out, buoyed by strong support from local fans. The ongoing discussions and proposed changes reflect Fifa’s interest in ensuring the shoot-out format is as equitable as possible moving forward.