Addis Ababa — Renewed fighting in Ethiopia has intensified significantly in recent days, with drone strikes reportedly hitting the capital, Addis Ababa, marking an escalation seldom seen in the city. The violence stems from clashes primarily between government forces and rebel groups in the northern region of Tigray, but it has expanded southwards toward key locations such as the pilgrimage site of Lalibela. The conflict threatens to destabilize the broader Horn of Africa region as it intersects with other ongoing conflicts in neighboring countries.

The current violence follows a fragile peace agreement reached in 2022 that ended a devastating civil war in Ethiopia’s north. That earlier conflict resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and widespread human rights abuses. However, tensions quickly reignited when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) renewed hostilities against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. This time, the Tigrayan rebels have allied with six other insurgent groups across Ethiopia, forming a broader coalition challenging federal authority.

The government has accused Eritrea, which previously sided with Ethiopian forces during the earlier conflict, of backing the rebel coalition, allegations that Eritrea denies. Abyi’s administration has further alleged involvement of Sudan and Egypt in supporting anti-government factions, though both countries have rejected the claims. Conversely, Sudan has accused Ethiopia of providing support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a rebel faction in Sudan’s own civil war, including the use of Ethiopian territory for training and drone operations.

The escalation in hostilities has sparked international concern due to its potential to spread instability throughout a geopolitically sensitive area. The Red Sea corridor, a critical route for maritime trade, has become a flashpoint with the presence of Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea via ports outside Eritrea adds further complexity to regional dynamics. This pursuit led Ethiopia to sign an agreement with Somaliland in 2024 for access to the Berbera port, recognizing Somaliland’s independence—a move not universally accepted in the region.

Analysts note that the speed and scale of this renewed conflict differ markedly from the earlier war, characterized by slow-moving battles confined to northern areas. The recent drone strikes near Addis Ababa suggest a widening of the conflict’s geographic scope and complexity. Government forces have regained control over some strategic towns in Tigray, while rebel factions have advanced into southern regions, including Amhara and Afar, where local militias have joined the coalition.

Humanitarian conditions are deteriorating rapidly. The fighting has caused widespread disruption of services, including a suspension of flights to Lalibela and persistent internet blackouts that hinder communication and information flow. Aid groups report hundreds of wounded civilians seeking care amid soaring food prices and closed banks. Observers warn the current crisis risks plunging millions more into famine-like conditions reminiscent of the previous war.

International observers have expressed concern about the durability of the rebel coalition, noting internal divisions between hardliners and moderates within Tigray’s leadership, as well as unresolved territorial and political disputes among the allied groups. On the government side, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces growing animosity from multiple regions, undermining national cohesion.

The conflict appears poised to continue with escalating consequences unless diplomatic efforts can halt the fighting and address the underlying political grievances. Meanwhile, residents in the affected regions brace for worsening violence and humanitarian hardship amid fears of a broader regional war.