Billionaire Oliver Curtis’s Firmus Technologies is facing pressure to reduce its anticipated valuation as it prepares for what would be Australia’s second-largest initial public offering (IPO) in three decades. The company had initially targeted an $11 per share price, corresponding to a market capitalization near $44 billion, but reports indicate that investor demand—both domestic and international—has been weaker than expected. This has led to speculation that the IPO price could be lowered to around $9 per share, potentially reducing the amount raised by approximately $1.3 billion.

Firmus, which specializes in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and data centre operations, is scheduled to list on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on October 23. Despite considerable pre-IPO backing from prominent investors including Nvidia, Blackstone, Coatue, and Jane Street, retail interest appears to be muted. Some brokers involved in the transaction have described retail demand as “very light,” prompting advisers to intensify efforts to secure offshore investment.

The company’s financial advisers and co-lead managers include Highbury Partnership, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Morgans, with additional support from Bell Potter, Commonwealth Securities, and others. According to preliminary documents, Firmus claims to have contracts valued at around $68 billion, with a substantial portion of its operations centered in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia. However, the business remains loss-making and operates only two data centres—one in Melbourne and another in Singapore—with plans to expand to a capacity of 4.1 gigawatts over the medium term.

Firmus had earlier announced a $73.3 billion deal with data centre operator CDC, aiming to develop AI factories in Australia and create over 20,000 jobs within three years. That plan has since been abandoned in favor of focusing on new or planned data centre facilities in Asia, a shift that aligns with its expectation that most future profits will come from the region. This retreat from the Australian project was accompanied by Firmus’s withdrawal from a scheduled appearance before the federal parliament’s AI inquiry.

Market observers remain divided on Firmus’s valuation given it has yet to build many of its assets and operates within the capital-intensive and rapidly evolving AI sector. Fund manager Jun Bei Liu described Firmus as a “divisive story,” pointing out the challenge of pricing based on projected, rather than established, operations.

There are concerns regarding the stock’s risk profile, drawing comparisons with the troubled 2024 IPO of data centre operator DigiCo, which suffered a steep share price decline shortly after listing. Much of Firmus’s outlook is also closely tied to Nvidia’s success; Nvidia’s significant investments in AI infrastructure underpin Firmus’s technology and financing arrangements. Industry reports highlight a complex network of financial dependencies involving major players such as Nvidia, OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft, suggesting that sustained capital investment is critical to the sector’s stability.

Despite these challenges, if the IPO proceeds, the listing will net Oliver Curtis and his family a substantial paper fortune, though potentially $1 billion less than initial projections. Curtis, who has experienced a high-profile personal and professional comeback, is expected to remain among Australia’s wealthiest individuals post-listing. However, the broader market will be closely watching Firmus’s performance amid concerns about the broader AI investment environment and potential valuation recalibrations.