Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain closely matched in the lead-up to October’s presidential election, according to a recent Nexus/BTG Pactual poll released on August 3. The survey indicates that Bolsonaro, a right-wing lawmaker, has narrowed the gap against the leftist incumbent.

In a simulated runoff scenario, Lula would secure 46% of voter support compared to Bolsonaro’s 45%. This represents a tightening from a July 27 Nexus poll in which Lula led Bolsonaro by 47% to 43%. In a hypothetical first-round vote, Lula stands at 41%, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%, with other candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema—garnering smaller shares at 5%, 4%, and 3%, respectively. The previous poll had Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round.

If no candidate obtains more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two contenders will proceed to a runoff election. Lula, who is 80 years old, was officially confirmed as the Workers’ Party candidate for an unprecedented fourth non-consecutive term on July 30. During his nomination, he pledged to increase defense spending and to protect Brazil’s reserves of rare earth minerals.

The Nexus poll surveyed 2,002 respondents between July 31 and August 2 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. The data underscores an intensifying contest as Brazil moves closer to a highly contested presidential vote later this year.