Flávio Bolsonaro, the far-right son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, secured a commanding lead in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, raising concerns among environmentalists and climate advocates about the future of the Amazon rainforest. The election took place on 8 October, with Bolsonaro receiving approximately 47% of the vote, positioning him ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who garnered 44.2%. The runoff is scheduled for 25 October.
The Amazon, a globally critical ecosystem, faces mounting threats under Bolsonaro’s prospective leadership. Environmental campaigners warn that his presidency could accelerate deforestation, illegal mining, and land grabbing, jeopardizing biodiversity and Indigenous territories. During Jair Bolsonaro’s four-year term, the Amazon experienced a 59.5% increase in deforestation, equivalent to the loss of around two billion trees. Flávio Bolsonaro, who embodies his father’s political legacy, has indicated he intends to continue policies that favor extractive industries and reduce environmental regulations.
Among his previous actions, Flávio Bolsonaro supported a 2019 legislative proposal to remove requirements for landowners in the Amazon to maintain native vegetation. His manifesto notably omitted any reference to climate change, and he has publicly aligned himself with influential landowners linked to deforestation. Following the recent election, Bolsonaro-aligned candidates now control seven of the nine states in the Brazilian Amazon, strengthening the political influence of what is sometimes referred to as the “Bolsonaroist” movement. This group prioritizes economic exploitation of natural resources over conservation efforts.
The election outcome also reflected setbacks for pro-environment candidates. Former environment minister Marina Silva failed in her Senate bid, and Joenia Wapichana, a former head of Brazil’s Indigenous affairs agency, Funai, did not secure a congressional seat. Only two of 57 Indigenous candidates won seats, underscoring limited electoral traction for advocates of environmental and Indigenous rights.
The Brazilian Congress, already dominated by agribusiness interests, has intensified efforts to weaken environmental protections. This trend is likely to continue, particularly amid tensions within the Supreme Court, which has served as a partial check against unfettered expansion by mining, ranching, and monoculture operations. Analysts suggest that even if Lula prevails in the runoff, governing will be challenging given the broad political support for Bolsonaroism at both state and federal levels.
Observers cite several factors behind Bolsonaro’s electoral success despite widespread international concern over his environmental policies. The far right’s adept use of social media and disinformation campaigns, including through WhatsApp groups linked to Bolsonaro’s family, played a significant role in shaping voter perceptions. Additionally, demographic and cultural shifts, such as the rise of evangelical Pentecostalism, have altered the political landscape, sometimes reducing the impact of traditional pro-nature rhetoric.
The election also resonates amid broader geopolitical tensions linked to climate and resource competition. Some analysts see Brazil’s vote as part of a pattern in Latin America and beyond where far-right movements have gained ground by aligning with extractive industries, often at the expense of environmental sustainability.
Looking ahead, Lula will need to appeal to the many voters who abstained or supported eliminated right-wing candidates to overcome Bolsonaro’s lead. Historically, first-round leaders have won runoff elections in Brazil, making Bolsonaro the favorite. The stakes extend beyond Brazilian politics—potentially affecting the future of the Amazon, Indigenous communities, and global climate stability.