Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong showing in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election has raised significant concern among environmental advocates and international observers about the future of the Amazon rainforest and Brazil’s broader environmental policies. Bolsonaro, the far-right son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, secured 47% of the vote, placing him ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who garnered 44.2%. The runoff between the two candidates is scheduled for 25 October.
The Amazon, a crucial global ecosystem, faces heightened risks if Bolsonaro prevails. During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, deforestation in the region surged by nearly 60%, undoing years of conservation efforts. Flávio Bolsonaro has indicated that his administration would continue policies favorable to extractive industries, including mining, logging, and agriculture, with weakened environmental protections and Indigenous land rights. His previous legislative record includes support for measures that reduced requirements for landowners to preserve native vegetation in the Amazon.
The election results also reflect a broader political shift in the region. Bolsonaro’s allies have secured control in seven of the nine Brazilian states encompassing the Amazon and may add an eighth in the upcoming runoffs. The influence of "Bolsonarist" politicians has grown within Congress, with family members of Jair Bolsonaro elected to the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. This legislative bloc, which prioritizes agribusiness interests, has pushed for legislation that undermines environmental safeguards. Observers note that a chaotic Supreme Court and a fragmented government could limit the ability of any administration, including Lula’s, to implement strong environmental policies even if he prevails.
Environmental and Indigenous advocates also experienced setbacks in recent elections. Former environment minister Marina Silva failed in her Senate bid, and Joenia Wapichana, a former Indigenous affairs official, was unsuccessful in her congressional campaign. Among 57 Indigenous candidates, only two were elected. These outcomes highlight challenges faced by groups seeking to halt deforestation and protect Indigenous territories.
Analysts suggest several factors contributed to Bolsonaro’s electoral strength, including the effective use of social media by far-right groups to spread misinformation and fear, as well as a cultural shift toward Pentecostalism, which is becoming more influential than Catholicism in parts of Brazil, including the Amazon. Critics argue that this religious change affects political attitudes toward the environment and economic priorities. Meanwhile, Lula’s Workers’ Party faces difficulties maintaining its historic base amid changing social dynamics and rising expectations fostered by previous social programs that bolstered consumption but also engendered discontent among key sectors like agriculture.
The Brazilian election is also intertwined with larger geopolitical tensions involving major powers such as the United States and China. The rise of far-right politics in Latin America, marked by resource extraction and rollbacks on environmental regulation, mirrors trends observed in other countries including the United States under Donald Trump and several South American nations. Bolsonaro’s family has openly courted U.S. support, with past statements indicating alignment with U.S. policies and criticisms of Brazil’s judicial actions.
As the election enters its decisive phase, Lula retains a narrow path to victory, needing to mobilize voters who abstained or supported other candidates in the first round. The outcome will have significant implications not only for Brazil’s future but for the global climate and biodiversity conservation efforts.