A preliminary agreement expected to be signed soon between the United States and Iran could eventually ease jet fuel prices by reopening oil exports from the Middle East. However, industry experts warn that lower airfares are unlikely to materialize in the near term.

The conflict in the Persian Gulf region led to a near doubling of jet fuel prices, prompting airlines to reduce flight schedules and raise ticket prices. The U.S.-Iranian deal aims to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about 20 percent of global seaborne jet fuel. Yet, analysts emphasize that it will take months for supply chains to normalize due to damaged infrastructure, shipping hesitations, and the time needed to restart oil production and refining operations.

“Oil fields cannot simply restart overnight,” the International Air Transport Association (IATA) cautioned, noting that refineries and related facilities require substantial repairs and time before resuming full capacity. Additionally, many vessels have distanced themselves from the Gulf amid recent hostilities, further delaying recovery.

Jet fuel remains one of the largest operating expenses for airlines, typically accounting for 25 to 35 percent of flight costs. Following fuel price surges at the conflict’s outbreak, carriers absorbed part of the higher costs but passed much of the increase onto passengers through higher fares. With travelers demonstrating strong willingness to pay elevated prices, airlines have little incentive to reduce ticket costs even if fuel prices decline.

Industry executives highlighted that operational cost structures are locked in for upcoming months, making immediate fare reductions impractical. John Grant, chief analyst at aviation data firm OAG, noted that a decline in oil prices does not directly translate into proportional fare cuts. Similarly, Scott Kirby, United Airlines’ CEO, indicated that price increases tend to persist over longer periods once established.

U.S. airlines have raised base fares multiple times since early February, with domestic flights now averaging about 28 percent more expensive year-over-year, and international routes up roughly 18 percent, according to travel pricing analytics. Southwest Airlines’ CEO Bob Jordan remarked that demand has remained strong despite successive fare hikes.

The financial impact has varied across regions and carriers. Middle Eastern airlines, heavily affected by the conflict, face projected losses of $4.3 billion this year compared to earlier forecasts for $6.8 billion in profits, per IATA. In contrast, North American carriers have shown greater resilience, though struggling budget airlines such as Spirit Airlines shuttered operations in part due to rising fuel costs.

European airlines somewhat mitigated exposure to fuel price spikes by using hedging strategies, which U.S. carriers largely abandoned years ago. However, all airlines will face higher fuel costs when renewing contracts in coming months.

Looking ahead, analysts suggest that airfare reductions, if they occur, are more likely in the fall or winter when travel demand typically softens. Otherwise, carriers may prefer to reduce flight frequencies rather than lower prices. Some fares may decline selectively on certain routes as airlines seek to stimulate demand or remain competitive, especially for financially strained Middle Eastern operators.

Industry observers also point out that competitive pressures could eventually force broader price adjustments. Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, noted that fare reductions by one carrier often prompt others to follow suit in a market-sensitive environment.

For now, travelers should anticipate that airline ticket prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future despite potential easing of fuel costs stemming from the U.S.-Iranian agreement.