Holidaymakers planning travel during the May half-term school break face potential flight cancellations and disruptions as concerns grow over jet fuel supply shortages amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Several airlines have indicated that their current fuel reserves will last only four to six weeks, raising uncertainty about flight availability for trips planned in late May.

The surge in jet fuel prices and the risk of supply constraints are linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for fuel exports from the Gulf region. The International Energy Agency has cautioned that some European countries could begin to experience jet fuel shortages within the next six weeks, a development that could significantly impact air travel.

Industry experts note that airlines are taking preemptive measures to manage fuel consumption, including canceling flights and limiting schedules. Bernard Lavelle, an aviation analyst, emphasized the limited visibility airlines have on future fuel supply, estimating that most carriers can only reliably project their fuel availability up to six weeks ahead. EasyJet Spain’s CEO, Javier Gandara, also expressed uncertainty about securing sufficient jet fuel beyond the coming three to four weeks.

The European Union is preparing guidance for airlines on managing airport slots and passenger rights should fuel shortages lead to further flight cancellations. Additionally, the European Commission has announced plans to establish a "fuel observatory" to closely monitor supply levels. Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the EU’s transport commissioner, acknowledged that there are currently no shortages but warned a sustained blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could have catastrophic consequences for both Europe’s economies and the global market.

Some airlines have already begun to adjust operations in response to the developing situation. KLM has canceled 160 flights scheduled for next month, while Lufthansa is retiring 27 older aircraft from its CityLine subsidiary early to conserve fuel. This follows broader trends as carriers seek to optimize fuel efficiency in the face of rising costs and potential scarcity.

The United Kingdom, which imports approximately 65 percent of its jet fuel, is particularly vulnerable to these supply disruptions. During the May bank holiday weekend and the start of the half-term break, around 12,400 flights are expected to depart from UK airports, highlighting the potential scale of impact if fuel shortages worsen.

Travel experts are advising passengers to consider booking trips for later in the year, such as autumn or winter, to secure more stable pricing and availability amid the current uncertainty in fuel supplies.