Since the United States lifted its naval blockade on Iran last week, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has shown signs of gradual recovery, with a notable increase in vessels, many transporting Iranian crude oil. The strait, a vital global shipping corridor for petroleum, has faced disruptions since the outbreak of conflict in late February, with the central navigational route reportedly mined and rendering it largely unusable for commercial vessels.
From Saturday to Monday, a total of 109 ships transited the strait, marking the highest three-day traffic volume since hostilities began, according to maritime data firm Kpler. However, this figure remains significantly lower than the prewar daily average of more than 130 ships. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has reported a backlog of approximately 500 to 600 vessels awaiting passage, reflecting ongoing operational challenges in the region.
Ship movements have been closely monitored through various maritime intelligence sources, despite some vessels disabling their transponders, complicating real-time tracking. The emerging pattern points to the increasing use of two alternatives to the mined central channel: a northern route near Iranian waters by Larak Island, and a southern path along the Omani coast, which is under the watch of the U.S. Navy.
Iran-linked tankers have been actively moving crude oil via the northern route, with at least a dozen such vessels heading toward Asian markets, as indicated by data from S&P Global’s Commodities at Sea. This uptick in Iranian oil shipments follows the Trump administration’s decision on Monday to temporarily lift sanctions on Iranian oil, potentially enabling Tehran to increase its oil exports and alleviate prior discounts forced by sanctions.
Meanwhile, traffic along the southern route is also increasing. U.S. Central Command spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins reaffirmed continued U.S. naval presence to ensure freedom of navigation through the strait. Despite Iranian directives requiring all ships to transit through its territorial waters, many operators are reportedly disregarding this, favoring routes monitored by the U.S. Navy.
The volume of oil stocks in the Persian Gulf has decreased to an estimated 103 million barrels, down from over 150 million barrels a week earlier, helping to moderate global oil prices. Nevertheless, industry experts caution that the fragile recovery depends heavily on the absence of Iranian military attacks on shipping. Any escalation could rapidly reverse progress and curb maritime traffic.
The IMO has announced plans to initiate an evacuation operation for approximately 11,000 seafarers who have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for over three months. This large-scale effort will involve close coordination with regional coastal states, including Iran and Oman, as well as the United States and maritime industry stakeholders.
While risk assessments of transiting the Strait of Hormuz have been downgraded to a “moderate” level by the Joint Maritime Information Center, ongoing threats such as GPS interference and regional military activity continue to warrant caution among shipping companies. Operators remain hesitant amid conflicting messages regarding navigational safety and the strait’s status. Executives from shipping firms like Stealth Gas and Hapag-Lloyd have reported vessels and crews immobilized due to safety concerns and unclear transit protocols.
Looking ahead, the future of passage through the strait remains uncertain, pending the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations set to last at least 60 days. In a recent joint statement, Iran and Oman indicated discussions about imposing transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring their asserted sovereignty over these waters. Such measures could have significant ramifications for global trade, which relies on the principle of free passage through international maritime corridors.