Food prices in the United Kingdom are expected to rise sharply next year amid concerns that government ministers did not adequately respond to early warnings from retailers about the impact of the ongoing conflict in Iran, lawmakers were told.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has projected food price increases of more than 6 percent by mid-2027, driven by escalating costs for fuel, fertiliser, and raw materials. Jim Bligh, the BRC’s corporate affairs director, told the Commons Public Accounts Committee that the most significant price hikes are yet to materialize, with rising production and logistics expenses expected to hit supermarket shelves around mid-year.
Current forecasts indicate food and drink inflation will accelerate from 3.9 percent in December 2026 to a peak of 6.4 percent by July, according to the Food and Drink Federation. The Institute of Grocery Distribution projects inflation for food products next year will average between 5.6 and 6.6 percent. Official statistics show that food and drink prices have already increased by 1.3 percent in the 12 months up to August.
The cost of several staple commodities has surged significantly over the last year, with wheat prices rising by 45 percent and cocoa prices approximately doubling. Other commodities such as rice, sugar, and coffee have seen price increases of 60 percent, 27 percent, and 22 percent respectively. Rising costs are also expected in the meat sector, as drought conditions diminish grass supplies and drive up animal feed prices.
Bligh described a series of early discussions between supermarket representatives and officials from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) at the outset of the conflict in Iran. Retailers formed a working group to present potential government actions aimed at mitigating the effects of rising petrol, diesel, and fertiliser prices on the food supply chain. Despite repeated meetings, Bligh said none of the proposed interventions were enacted.
When asked if the government was treating food security with the same urgency as energy security, Bligh responded negatively, expressing doubts about the government’s preparedness for severe disruptions. He noted that 131 food supply depots were crucial to national distribution but was unaware of any official contingency plans to safeguard these facilities during an emergency.
In response, the government emphasized that food security is regarded as a matter of national security. A spokesperson stated that food supply considerations are fully integrated into emergency preparedness planning and that there is ongoing collaboration with farmers, suppliers, retailers, and relevant departments to enhance supply chain resilience.