Household food staples such as bread and pasta are expected to remain costly for the foreseeable future due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and adverse weather conditions, according to a recent analysis. The report highlights a persistent pattern in food pricing known as the “rocket and feathers” effect, where prices increase rapidly following major shocks but decline slowly and only partially afterwards, leaving consumers to face elevated grocery bills long after the initial disruptions subside.

Drawing on over three decades of data from the United Kingdom, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found that retail food prices typically decrease by just 1% of the original rise after six months, 5% after one year, and 7% after two years. When adjusted for wages, only about one-third of the initial affordability impact had dissipated within a two-year period, underscoring the long-term financial strain on households.

The study attributes this asymmetrical price movement to factors linked to global instability and climatic changes. Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, explained that ongoing conflicts, such as the current Middle East crisis, are driving up costs for essential inputs like oil, gas, and fertilizer—critical components in the production, transportation, and processing of food. Additionally, England has experienced three of its worst harvests in five years due to extreme weather, further exacerbating supply constraints and price volatility.

Jaccarini emphasized the importance of achieving net zero emissions to stabilize the climate and mitigate the risks of floods and droughts, which would also reduce dependence on fossil fuels. He suggested that cutting reliance on oil and gas could help shield food prices from fluctuations in global markets.

Henry Dimbleby, who formerly led the government’s National Food Strategy, also weighed in on the issue, describing food inflation as “brutal” and cautioning that it will persist unless the underlying causes are addressed. Both analysts point to the need for comprehensive policies aimed at tackling climate change and geopolitical vulnerabilities to prevent further long-term increases in food costs.