Food and beverage prices accounted for approximately half of Oman’s inflation rate in September, driven largely by increased transportation costs and delays affecting fresh food imports, according to an economist at Sultan Qaboos University.
Dr. Osman Gulseven, Associate Professor of Economics and WTO Chair at Sultan Qaboos University, explained in an interview that rising freight charges and prolonged shipping times have contributed significantly to price pressures faced by importers and consumers. Official data from Oman’s National Centre for Statistics and Information showed that prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 8.0% year-on-year in September, compared with a headline inflation rate of 3.2%.
Specific food categories saw even steeper increases, with vegetable prices up 20.1%, fruit prices rising 16.3%, and meat prices increasing 10.3% over the past year. Although food and beverages make up about 20.6% of Oman’s consumer price index basket, Dr. Gulseven noted that their contribution to overall inflation was disproportionately large, estimating food’s share at roughly half of the annual inflation increase.
He attributed part of the retail price growth to elevated costs associated with freight, insurance, storage, refrigeration, and domestic distribution. These factors can intensify price pressures independently of changes in overseas supplier prices. Dr. Gulseven referred to data reported by a local fresh-produce importer showing container shipping costs from India escalating from $1,800 to $8,400, China from $3,800 to as high as $15,000, and Europe from around $4,000 to $10,000 per container.
Shipping delays have also extended, with some shipments from Africa taking more than 40 days compared to about 28 days previously, further increasing refrigeration expenses and the risk of product spoilage. However, Dr. Gulseven emphasized that increased prices do not necessarily translate into higher profits for importers or retailers. He stated that without detailed information on purchase and selling prices, along with transport and storage costs, it is not possible to determine whether profit margins have changed.
Dr. Gulseven’s observations build on prior research he co-authored in 2025 analyzing the relationship between international and domestic food prices in Oman from 2013 to early 2024. That study identified strong links between global food prices—particularly cereals—and those within Oman but did not fully explain recent spikes in fresh fruit and vegetable prices. The international Food and Agriculture Organisation’s Food Price Index, which excludes fresh produce, rose 5.8% year-on-year in September.
The economist also highlighted the disproportionate impact on lower-income households and those on fixed incomes, for whom food constitutes a larger share of household spending. Increases in essential food prices can therefore lead to a significant deterioration in living standards, sometimes masked by reduced consumption. Although shipping and delivery costs may eventually moderate, Dr. Gulseven warned that retail price relief could be delayed.
He recommended strengthening Oman’s food supply resilience through improvements in cold storage, diversification of suppliers and transport routes, reduction of clearance delays, and greater transparency in wholesale and retail pricing. He also advocated for expanding domestically feasible and resource-efficient food production to reduce vulnerability to external supply shocks in the future.