Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh appeared to break through a prolonged slump with a series of home runs over the past two days, raising optimism about a potential turnaround in a difficult 2026 season. On Monday, Raleigh hit three home runs—one each in the first, fifth, and seventh innings—against the Philadelphia Phillies. He followed that with another homer on Tuesday off Aaron Nola, marking five home runs during the Mariners’ current homestand.
Despite this recent surge, Raleigh’s overall performance this season remains well below his 2025 standards, when he finished as the runner-up for the American League Most Valuable Player. After hitting 60 home runs last year, Raleigh has managed only 17 this year, a significant dropoff that could set a record for the steepest decline in home runs by a qualified hitter one year after a 60-homer campaign.
An analysis of Raleigh’s swing mechanics reveals relatively little alteration compared to last season. Metrics tracking swing speed, tilt, and attack angle show minimal variation, with his swing speed being slightly slower by just 0.3 miles per hour but still ranked above the 80th percentile. His contact point remains far out in front of the plate, a trait that contributed to his power surge in 2025 but also demands precise timing and plate discipline.
Experts point to Raleigh’s markedly worsened plate discipline as the main factor behind his slump. In 2025, he ranked in the 84th percentile for swinging at strikes while avoiding pitches outside the zone. This year, that figure has dropped to the 33rd percentile, representing one of the steepest declines in plate discipline in Major League Baseball. His weighted runs created plus (wRC+), a park-adjusted measure of overall hitting performance, has fallen from 161 last year—well above league average—to 85 this season, placing him below average.
While Raleigh’s tendency to swing less overall has remained consistent, his struggle to capitalize on hittable pitches within the strike zone has cost him. Analysts suggest that the pressure to maintain an aggressive, front-of-the-plate contact point may have exposed vulnerabilities in his approach, especially as opposing pitchers have adjusted. Pitchers are now throwing fewer strikes overall but occasionally offering “cookie” pitches down the middle, which Raleigh has at times failed to capitalize on.
The Mariners see promise in Raleigh’s recent hot streak and hope it signals a broader recovery as he regains his plate discipline and offensive production. However, fixing his approach may require more than minor in-season adjustments. Current trends in pitching, including increased use of cutters disguised as four-seam fastballs, complicate the challenge for hitters like Raleigh. Some analysts suggest that a targeted strategy focusing on aggressively attacking certain pitch locations could help reset his timing and confidence.
With the Mariners pursuing a postseason berth, Raleigh’s ability to return to form remains a critical factor for the team’s success. While recent performances offer a glimmer of hope, sustainable improvement will be necessary to recapture the offensive dominance he displayed in 2025.