A group of Canadian finance veterans has submitted an application seeking regulatory approval to establish the country's first investment dealer focused exclusively on prediction market trades. The new venture, led by Atul Tiwari, former CEO of Vanguard Investments Canada Inc., aims to operate within the existing securities framework while providing a platform dedicated solely to event contracts.
The company, named Verdx, filed its application this week with the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). The submission is currently under review, with no specific timetable announced for approval or launch.
Prediction markets allow investors to trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of specified future events. While these markets have gained popularity in the United States, including offerings tied to sports and entertainment, Canadian regulators have limited event contracts to those connected with economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends. CIRO-approved dealers are not permitted to offer contracts related to esports or entertainment. Verdx has stated that it plans to operate strictly within this regulatory framework.
Verdx intends to function as an order-execution-only investment dealer, facilitating trade execution without providing investment advice. The company emphasizes the potential practical applications of event contracts, citing examples such as contracts tied to extreme weather events that could help hedge against flood damage or insurance costs. Atul Tiwari highlighted that the firm seeks to demonstrate the utility of prediction markets amid ongoing debate about whether such products constitute investing or gambling.
Tiwari, recognized for launching Vanguard’s Canadian operations in 2011 and guiding its growth to over $30 billion in assets under management before departing in 2018, is joined by notable industry figures, including Jim Andriopoulos, former CFO at Wells Fargo, and Michael Williams, who previously held compliance and risk roles at Richardson Wealth and HSBC. The advisory team includes Ed Waitzer, former chair of the Ontario Securities Commission, Jos Schmitt, founder of the NEO Exchange (now Cboe Canada), and David Lang, former global chief compliance officer at Royal Bank of Canada.
Industry observers anticipate substantial growth in the prediction market sector. Jos Schmitt noted projections pointing to “tremendous growth” in the coming years. Verdx estimates that a dedicated Canadian platform could generate annual trading volumes between $40 billion and $50 billion within five years. By comparison, the combined monthly global trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket—two major U.S.-based prediction markets—reached $53 billion in July 2026, though much of that activity has been dominated by sports-related contracts.
Tiwari acknowledged that many Canadians may already be participating in prediction markets through offshore platforms, though reliable data on such activity is sparse. Verdx plans to target both retail and institutional investors, including educational resources to explain event contracts and trading strategies. The company envisions that institutional investors could eventually represent up to half of its trading volume, mirroring trends observed in the United States, where institutional activity on platforms like Kalshi has seen rapid growth.
If approved, Verdx would not operate the exchanges where the contracts are listed but would offer access to event contracts cleared through U.S.-regulated exchanges overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. While the company has not disclosed the specific exchanges it intends to work with, it confirmed ongoing engagement with multiple market participants. Other Canadian firms, such as Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers Canada, currently offer access to U.S.-based prediction market contracts through their platforms.
As the Canadian regulatory landscape continues to evolve around this emerging asset class, Verdx’s application represents a significant step in establishing a domestic, compliant infrastructure for prediction market trading. However, the ultimate acceptance and impact of such markets in Canada remain subject to regulatory decisions and market adoption.