Plans by Labour’s Andy Burnham to potentially reverse Brexit and re-enter closer arrangements with the European Union could lead to a significant increase in immigration, according to recent reports. French President Emmanuel Macron has reportedly made it clear that any move by Britain to rejoin the single market or the customs union would require accepting the EU’s principle of free movement of people.

Mr. Burnham, speaking at Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, outlined his intention to use an upcoming UK-EU summit this autumn to initiate discussions on Britain’s future relationship with the EU. His proposals include rejoining the single market or customs union, or possibly returning to full EU membership, options that may or may not involve holding a second referendum. While Mr. Burnham criticized Brexit for weakening immigration controls, he did not address the likelihood that renewed membership in the single market or customs union would restore the EU’s open-border policy.

Whitehall sources revealed that President Macron conveyed to Mr. Burnham during talks last month that full access to the EU’s markets would come with the condition of accepting the “four freedoms,” which encompass the unrestricted movement of goods, services, capital, and people. This stance aligns with long-established EU policy requiring member and closely associated states to maintain free movement.

Analysis by Reform UK estimates that restoring free movement could result in an influx of approximately 213,000 migrants annually, based on pre-Brexit migration patterns between 2012 and 2019. EU migration averaged more than 270,000 annually in the two years before the 2016 Brexit referendum but dropped to about 75,000 in the final year before the UK formally left the bloc. Reform UK and political figures such as Nigel Farage have labeled Mr. Burnham’s position as a “Brexit betrayal,” warning that reopening borders to EU nationals could overwhelm the UK’s immigration system.

The Centre for Migration think tank has also cautioned that rejoining the EU membership or single market may reverse recent trends of net negative European migration and could prompt a surge, particularly from countries like Romania and Bulgaria. The think tank further expressed concerns about the UK government’s ability to manage increased migration without accompanying labour market reforms.

The potential shift in immigration policy and close ties to the EU revived by Mr. Burnham’s proposals have sparked debate about the future of the UK’s sovereignty over its borders. While some view free movement as an inevitable condition of renewed cooperation with Brussels, others see it as a significant challenge to the aims of Brexit. The upcoming UK-EU summit is expected to shed further light on the feasibility and political appetite for any such moves.