France’s public debt is projected to reach its highest level since 1978, driven by a widening budget deficit, according to the country’s finance ministry. A ministry official indicated that public debt will rise to 119.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and climb further to 121.7% in 2027, significantly exceeding the 60% of GDP target set by European Union fiscal guidelines.
These debt levels are unprecedented in recent decades, with France ranking as the third most indebted country in the eurozone after Greece and Italy. In contrast, Spain’s debt fell below 100% of GDP in July, and Portugal aims to reduce its debt under 90% by 2025.
The ministry source attributed the debt increase primarily to an "automatic" result of a persistently high deficit. France’s public deficit — the gap between government revenue and expenditure — was 5.1% of GDP in 2023, surpassing the EU limit of 3%, and is forecast to reach 5.4% in 2024. The government expects a slight improvement to 5% in 2025, the year of the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.
The government recently submitted its draft budget for 2027 to the High Council of Public Finances, an independent fiscal authority, seeking evaluation of its macroeconomic feasibility. Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu unveiled plans to reduce spending by €54 billion ($108.4 billion) in the 2027 budget. However, given the sensitivities ahead of elections, key decisions — such as proposals to curtail tax breaks for pensioners — have been deferred to parliamentary debate.
Eric Coquerel, head of the finance committee in the National Assembly and a member of the left-wing France Unbowed party, criticized the proposed cuts as indiscriminate, warning they risk disproportionately impacting the poorest segments of society.
Amid concerns over the fiscal outlook, Amelie de Montchalin, president of the High Council of Public Finances, expressed cautious optimism. Speaking to a French newspaper, she emphasized that France’s fiscal crisis is not inevitable and highlighted the importance of swift and prudent policy decisions.
Economic growth forecasts for 2026 have recently been revised downward, reflecting subdued consumer spending and heightened energy prices linked to the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. These factors further complicate France’s efforts to manage its public finances within the EU framework.