New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s plan to provide free child care for all children under age five in the city could require significantly greater funding than initially projected, according to a report released Monday by the Center for New York City Affairs, a nonpartisan research group affiliated with the New School.

The analysis estimates that implementing the proposed universal child care program would cost approximately $9 billion annually, which is nearly $5 billion more than the city’s child care expenditures for 2025. This projection translates to an average cost of about $27,000 per child each year.

As a candidate, Mamdani had estimated that establishing a free, universal child care system for children as young as six weeks would cost around $6 billion annually. His earlier estimate was a key element in discussions about funding, with Mamdani suggesting that the state would need to raise taxes on New York’s highest earners to support the expanded child care seats. To date, the city has not released its own updated cost model reflecting the latest proposal.

Currently, New York City offers free pre-kindergarten education for 3- and 4-year-olds, with limited availability for 2-year-olds beginning this fall. Expanding free child care for younger children represents one of the most ambitious and costly components of Mamdani’s broader safety net agenda.

The findings from the Center for New York City Affairs highlight the financial challenges the city faces in fulfilling Mamdani’s promise. The report’s authors, including Lauren Melodia, director of economic and fiscal policy at the center, contend that the city would struggle to cover the approximately $3 billion funding shortfall without securing substantial new revenue from state or federal sources, or both.

Families across the city have increasingly pointed to the high cost of child care as a significant barrier to economic stability, amplifying the urgency of addressing the issue. Nonetheless, the report suggests that funding a comprehensive, free child care system on the scale envisioned would be exceptionally difficult within the city’s current fiscal framework.