The Houthi movement in Yemen has returned to the international spotlight following a series of missile strikes on Saudi airports, including the main terminal in Riyadh, raising concerns about regional security and the broader implications for maritime trade through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This narrow waterway, situated at the southern end of the Red Sea, is a critical chokepoint for global shipping and energy supplies. Even limited Houthi attacks or credible threats have led insurers to classify the route as a war zone, increasing shipping premiums and pushing vessels to take longer routes around Africa, thereby raising costs for oil and goods worldwide.
Hisham Al-Omeisy, a Yemeni national and senior adviser at the European Institute of Peace in Washington, who has long experience in the region, described the complex challenges posed by the Houthis. Once a U.S. State Department employee in Yemen, Al-Omeisy was detained by the Houthis in 2017 and held for five months before his release. He has since focused on efforts to foster dialogue among parties in Yemen’s conflict.
Al-Omeisy emphasized that a military solution to the Houthi insurgency appears unattainable. While some view targeted strikes as a solution, he said, such actions have only devastated urban centers and disproportionately harmed civilians, including children and the elderly. The Houthis, he explained, are not simply an Iranian proxy but a distinct movement with deep roots in northern Yemen, combining local ambitions and religious ideology. Although they benefit from Iranian support, their interests do not fully align, reflecting a pragmatic alliance rather than complete subservience.
The recent missile attacks by the Houthis, capable of reaching as far as Tel Aviv, signal their growing military capability. Their leader frames the conflict in religious and regional terms, seeking recruitment and influence beyond Yemen’s borders. Al-Omeisy suggested that while force remains the Houthis’ language, they must perceive a credible opposing power to be compelled back to negotiations. Current Yemeni government structures remain fragmented, with internal divisions and external backers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates supporting various factions.
The conflict’s humanitarian toll continues to deepen. More than 200,000 people were newly displaced by early October, with thousands fleeing by sea to Djibouti. According to Al-Omeisy, 40% of Yemenis lack access to clean water, nearly half of medical facilities are nonfunctional, and up to 80% of families face food insecurity. The country has seen roughly five million internally displaced persons, and disease outbreaks are becoming increasingly prevalent due to poor living conditions.
Recent developments include the activation of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan following the Houthi strikes near Saudi holy sites. Pakistan currently provides troops and air defense support within Saudi Arabia, described as reconnaissance and protection. Al-Omeisy cautioned that if Saudi Arabia attempts a broader military incursion into Yemen using these foreign forces, it could provoke widespread opposition among Yemenis, who historically resist foreign military presence. Such a scenario risks uniting disparate groups against what they would frame as an invasion, potentially strengthening Houthi recruitment and resistance.
Reflecting on the failed 2022 ceasefire, which paused but did not resolve the conflict’s root causes, Al-Omeisy underlined that modest military measures have not ended the violence. He warned against the continued economic and security impact of Houthi control over the Bab al-Mandeb, where shipping costs indirectly fund the insurgency. Ultimately, he argued that sustainable peace depends on negotiations that address underlying grievances rather than on attempts to decisively eliminate either side by force, which would lead to further suffering and destabilization across Yemen.