Frustration is mounting among many Iranians who had opposed the regime as details of a recent peace agreement between the United States and Tehran have come to light, raising concerns that hardline Islamist factions in Iran have grown more influential and entrenched.

The deal, reached over the weekend, has prompted disappointment among activists and opposition groups who had hoped the pact would lead to more substantial change. In January, then-President Donald Trump had hinted at the possibility of military action against Iran’s regime in response to the deaths of thousands of anti-government protesters, posting on Truth Social that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” However, critics say the new agreement leaves the regime largely intact and potentially empowered through economic relief from the United States.

Khosro Isfahani, research director at the Washington-based National Union for Democracy in Iran think tank, expressed concern that the regime may use the deal’s concessions to reassert control domestically. “They fear this will embolden the Islamic Republic and allow it to redirect the frustration and defeat it suffered at America’s hands into rage against unarmed, innocent Iranians,” Isfahani said.

Hessam Rahimian, founder of the Arizona-based Iranian Liberty Foundation, described the development as “devastating” and lamented how hopes for freedom within the Iranian population had been raised — only to be dashed. He told local media that for about a month there was some optimism that the Iranian people would have an opportunity to break free from oppression.

The protests referenced erupted in late 2025 in response to soaring inflation, which made even basic staples like bread and meat unaffordable for many of Iran’s approximately 93 million citizens. The government’s response was violent, with some estimates citing up to 30,000 deaths as security forces fired on crowds. Numerous survivors were reportedly arrested, tortured, and detained in harsh prison conditions, according to dissident organizations and exiles.

Experts caution that ending the conflict without dismantling the regime could allow Iran’s leadership to portray itself as resilient, further solidifying its grip on power. Danny Citrinowicz, a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, noted that the regime’s ability to survive significant challenges bolsters the ruling elite’s confidence rather than weakening it.

Conversely, Maryam Rajavi, president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, suggested the agreement could curb Iran’s capacity for external aggression but emphasized the necessity of protecting domestic protesters. She stressed the importance of including provisions to halt executions of political prisoners and prevent ongoing killings within Iran.

The discontent surrounding the agreement is not confined to the opposition. Reports indicate that hardline factions within Iran’s political establishment are also dissatisfied, believing negotiators conceded too soon and that the terms put Tehran under undue American influence. Parliament hardliner Mahmoud Nabavian expressed fears that the country would effectively become subordinated to the United States.

Pro-regime rallies in Tehran have voiced criticism toward top negotiators Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accusing them of failing to secure a deal that upholds the legacy of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Amid tensions on both ends of the spectrum, Isfahani urged caution. He said the focus should remain on the specifics of the memorandum of understanding, how its terms are enforced, and its practical effects. “Real progress has been made in weakening the Islamic Republic, but the job is not done as long as the regime stands,” he said, underscoring the ongoing uncertainties regarding Iran’s political future.