As U.S. farmers begin the fall harvest amid rising costs, many are expressing frustration over escalating diesel and fertilizer prices, though a significant portion remain politically loyal to former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. The pressures come at a critical time as midterm elections approach, with farming constituencies playing a pivotal role in key battleground states such as Ohio.
David Schacht, a soybean farmer from Ohio, highlighted the growing financial strain caused by fuel and fertilizer expenses. Diesel prices have surged over 67 percent since February, dramatically increasing the cost of operating combines and other farm equipment during the harvest. Additionally, fertilizer prices—especially for essential inputs like potash—have doubled in some cases, a situation compounded by geopolitical tensions affecting global supply chains.
These tensions stem largely from ongoing hostilities between the United States and Iran. Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for energy and fertilizer shipments, has followed a series of violent exchanges, including U.S. and Israel strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites earlier this year. The continued conflict has disrupted commodity markets and added to the economic hardships faced by farmers.
Despite these challenges, Schacht said he remains committed to supporting Trump, emphasizing the importance of sticking with the Republican Party. “I’m not going to change,” he said, even as he acknowledged that many farmers are growing anxious about developments that have not met their expectations. His wife, Lisa Schacht, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that their support is grounded not only in economics but also in a shared belief in the “Make America Great Again” agenda, including its focus on strengthening domestic production and promoting traditional values.
However, there are signs of wavering enthusiasm among some agricultural voters. Joe Logan, interim president of the Ohio Farmers Union and a longtime grower of soybeans, corn, and wheat, described farmers as “flailing away” under mounting fuel costs and other pressures. He noted that the ongoing Middle East conflict arrived amid critical planting and harvesting periods, intensifying the financial burden on an already fragile farming sector.
Farm bankruptcies in the Midwest have risen sharply, increasing by 46 percent from 2024 to 2025, driven by declining revenues and rising operational costs. Logan pointed to the lasting effects of trade disputes initiated during Trump’s previous tenure, particularly with China, which have damaged export markets. With China historically purchasing about 40 percent of American soybeans, tariffs between the two nations led to billions in losses and created openings for competitors like Brazil and Argentina.
The latest trade tensions with Canada, a chief supplier of potash fertilizer, have further unsettled farmers worried about their ability to secure vital crop nutrients in the coming year. While this mounting strain is unlikely, Logan predicts, to cause a mass shift of farm voters to the Democratic Party, it may diminish enthusiasm and voter turnout among Republican supporters. “What we will see is a lot of those folks saying, ‘I’m not as enthusiastic about Mr. Trump and the Republicans as I used to be. I’m just going to stay home,’” he said.
As farmers face a complex web of geopolitical conflict, rising input costs, and trade uncertainties, their political allegiance remains a significant but potentially fragile factor in the approaching midterm elections.