Fuel, food, gold to cost more? World Bank warns of price rise

By the Editorial Team · Friday, October 30, 2026

The World Bank forecasts a 23 percent increase in global commodity prices in 2026, driven by Middle East conflicts, disrupted grain exports, and tighter energy supplies, with energy prices alone expected to rise 32 percent. This surge will raise living costs worldwide, including in the UAE, where higher fuel, food, and industrial metal prices are likely to impact transportation, imports, and infrastructure expenses.

Households in the United Arab Emirates and globally are expected to face higher costs for fuel, food, and other essential commodities in 2026, according to the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook released on Wednesday. The report forecasts an overall rise of 23 percent in global commodity prices next year, driven primarily by disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, interrupted grain shipments, and increasing pressures on energy supplies.

Energy prices are forecast to increase by 32 percent in 2026, marking a reversal of three consecutive years of declines. Brent crude oil is projected to average $91 per barrel next year, up from an estimated $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027. This rise results from reduced global oil supplies caused by the conflict, compelling countries to tap into their reserves. The World Bank projects global oil production will fall by 5.2 percent in 2026, the largest drop in over 40 years outside the 2020 recession, while consumption is expected to decline by 2.5 percent, reflecting both higher prices deterring use and the gradual shift toward electrification, particularly in China.

The outlook also highlights risks scenarios in which Brent crude could reach $105 per barrel in 2027, coupled with food commodity prices rising 12 percent above baseline forecasts, exceeding levels last witnessed in 2022. Despite declining demand, production is forecasted to remain below consumption, increasing reliance on inventories and making markets vulnerable to further disruptions.

For residents of the UAE, where petrol and diesel prices are adjusted monthly based on global market conditions, these developments suggest rising fuel and transportation costs that may affect the prices of imported food, goods, and logistics.

Food prices are also expected to rise significantly. The World Bank predicts a 10 percent increase in food commodity prices in 2026 followed by an additional 7 percent in 2027, amounting to an 18 percent rise over two years. Disturbances in grain shipments and adverse weather patterns linked to El Niño threaten agricultural productivity, while higher energy and fertilizer costs add to food production expenses. The UAE’s heavy dependence on international food supply chains means these increases could translate into higher grocery bills for consumers.

Fertilizer prices are forecast to climb 14 percent in 2026, continuing the upward trend seen earlier this year, although they are expected to return to 2025 levels in 2027. Elevated costs of agricultural inputs may nonetheless continue to weigh on food production and prices.

Industrial metals prices are forecast to rise 25 percent in 2026, driven by higher demand amid supply disruptions and increased investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data centers. This uptick could elevate costs for construction, electrical equipment, and infrastructure in the UAE and other markets. Precious metals, including gold, are expected to see price increases of approximately 40 percent this year as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a factor relevant to UAE consumers purchasing gold jewelry or bullion. Although precious metals prices are expected to soften in 2027, they are projected to remain significantly above averages recorded from 2015 to 2019.

To help countries manage the economic impact of rising commodity costs, the World Bank has made between $50 billion and $60 billion available through existing financial mechanisms, including $25 billion in pre-arranged financing.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.