Fuel prices in the Philippines have risen for the fourth consecutive week amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, pushing global oil prices higher and renewing pressure on transportation costs nationwide. On Tuesday, July 21, diesel prices surged by as much as 11 pesos per liter, the largest increase since recent Gulf region hostilities intensified. Kerosene prices climbed by up to 12 pesos per liter, while petrol saw a more moderate rise of 4 pesos per liter. Currently, diesel retails at an average of 78.59 pesos per liter, and petrol at 80.59 pesos per liter.

The Department of Energy attributed the sustained price increases primarily to ongoing volatility in the Middle East, particularly concerns over security disruptions in key shipping lanes. Houthi militant groups have threatened active engagements against vessels transiting the Red Sea, a critical route by which the Philippines sources approximately 80 percent of its fuel supplies. Despite the rising costs, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin noted that the country maintains a 49-day buffer stock of fuel, which may mitigate immediate supply risks should regional tensions worsen.

The prolonged spike in fuel prices has reignited calls from transport sector representatives for fare adjustments. Liberty de Luna, president of the Alliance of Concerned Transport Organizations, urged President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to approve a one-peso increase in the base fare for public transport. De Luna highlighted that the group’s petition for fare hikes, initially filed prior to the outbreak of conflict in late February and originally proposing a three-peso rise for the first four kilometers, had been approved by the transportation regulatory board in March but stalled due to presidential inaction. Instead, the government opted to offer targeted cash aid and fuel discounts at select city gas stations.

Opposition to fare hikes has also emerged from commuter advocacy groups. Mike Quinto, officer of the Passenger Forum, emphasized that fare increases should be considered only after public consultations, urging the government to prioritize alternative interventions to alleviate the burden on commuters.

In response to the crisis, the Marcos administration temporarily suspended excise taxes on cooking gas and kerosene but declined to do so for diesel and petrol, citing concerns over a significant loss in government revenue estimated at 43.6 billion pesos. Revenues from fuel imports, however, have exceeded expectations, reaching 83.41 billion pesos by mid-April. The government has allocated over 15 billion pesos in direct cash assistance to support low-income families and overseas Filipino workers affected by rising fuel costs and the broader economic impact of Middle East instability.

For individuals like Joseph Calanoga, a passenger van driver who begins work at 4 a.m. to maximize earnings, the fuel price spike hits directly. “As a public vehicle driver, I care about how much diesel costs. That directly relates whether I could still earn doing this job,” he said, underscoring the broader economic challenges faced by those reliant on daily income amid persistent fuel price inflation.