Voters in two German states headed to the polls Sunday in elections that could have significant implications for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s political future. The contests in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania come two weeks after a landmark regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) secured its strongest showing to date, raising concerns about the party’s growing influence and its potential to further erode support for Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Approximately 2.5 million eligible voters in Berlin and nearly 1.3 million in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania cast ballots in elections that will shape state governments and potentially reshape Merz’s standing as chancellor. Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. local time and closed at 6 p.m., with exit polls immediately drawing attention from national leaders and political observers.
Merz, who has led Germany for just 16 months, faces mounting pressure amid declining approval ratings, currently around 10%. Despite calls to step down, the chancellor reaffirmed his commitment to complete his four-year term, emphasizing the importance of ongoing economic and social welfare reforms. A government official noted Merz’s decision to cancel a scheduled appearance at the United Nations General Assembly in New York to remain in Berlin during the elections, underscoring the critical nature of the vote.
The CDU’s challenges have been compounded by broken campaign promises to revive economic growth and curb the AfD’s rise. The AfD, an anti-immigration party with pro-Kremlin leanings, came close to an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, a former East German state, edging toward a historic opportunity to govern a German state independently for the first time since the Nazi period. However, early polls suggest the AfD will fall short of such dominance in both Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, despite maintaining momentum.
In Berlin, the CDU battled for the top position against the far-left Die Linke, a party advocating for expropriation of corporate landlords to address a pronounced housing affordability crisis. With around 85% of households renting and rental prices having nearly doubled since 2014, housing remains a critical issue. The AfD consistently polled in third or fourth place, demonstrating a notable presence even in the capital’s diverse and cosmopolitan electorate. The CDU’s campaign was further hampered after the incumbent mayor Kai Wegner withdrew in July following controversy over his conduct during a power outage caused by arson the previous winter. His successor, Stefan Evers, struggled to improve the party’s electoral prospects.
The situation was more precarious in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD and the Social Democrats appeared locked in a close contest. The CDU risked falling below the 5% threshold required to enter parliament, a potentially historic blow after decades in the state legislature. Regional leaders in both states have attributed their poor polling to Merz’s weakened standing and leadership challenges.
Merz’s prospects have been clouded by broader issues, including rising living costs, deindustrialization in key sectors such as automobile manufacturing, and increased economic uncertainty fueled by higher global fuel prices. Although the German government has reduced new arrivals at the border, the AfD has successfully capitalized on economic anxieties, crime fears, and opposition to Merz’s firm backing of Ukraine in its foreign policy.
Economic analysts remain divided on Merz’s fate. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, acknowledged that while Merz is likely to complete his term, the probability of an internal party revolt has risen significantly in recent weeks.
The AfD’s electoral success in Saxony-Anhalt was partly driven by mobilizing non-voters, a tactic that could influence turnout and outcomes in the latest elections. Opponents of the far-right party hope to curtail its advances by increasing participation among center-left and moderate voters.
As results emerge, the CDU’s ability to maintain influence in these regional elections will be closely scrutinized, with implications for Germany’s political stability and Merz’s leadership as the country navigates a period of economic and geopolitical challenges.