Israel’s recent parliamentary election, held on November 1, concluded without a clear winner, setting the stage for a protracted period of political uncertainty and coalition negotiations. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the main opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot secured enough seats to form a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Netanyahu’s Likud party, together with its hard-right allies, won 53 seats, down from 64 in the previous 2022 election. The opposition bloc, centered around Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party and allied groups, secured 48 seats. Arab-led parties achieved an unprecedented 19 seats, marking their strongest showing to date.
The results were released by Israel’s Central Elections Committee in the early hours following the vote and remain subject to legal challenges and minor adjustments until the final deadline on November 18. After finalization, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders and decide who he will task with forming a government, a process expected to be complex and potentially lengthy.
Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief known for his hawkish military record but centrist political stance, could be given the first opportunity to assemble a coalition. He has expressed willingness to cooperate with Arab parties, a move seen as pivotal for obtaining a parliamentary majority but also a source of internal political tension. The Arab parties, led by figures like Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List, have called for a “true and equal” Jewish-Arab partnership aiming to end Netanyahu’s tenure. However, many Jewish parties, including some within Eisenkot’s coalition, oppose such cooperation, citing concerns regarding ideology and recognition of Israel’s identity as a Jewish state.
To address these concerns, Eisenkot’s bloc has reportedly asked Arab parties to endorse key principles, including affirming Israel as a Jewish and democratic state under the declaration of independence, recognizing Hamas as a terrorist organization, and supporting mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews and Palestinian citizens, a demand unmet by current Arab parties. Failure to reach a coalition agreement quickly risks triggering another election, posing logistical difficulties for many voters, especially citizens abroad.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has managed to maintain significant support despite ongoing corruption allegations and criticism for his government’s handling of the deadly Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which marked the deadliest day in Israel’s history. The assault sparked a war in Gaza, resulting in substantial casualties on both sides. Netanyahu’s campaign capitalized on fears of security threats and concerns about Arab political gains, contributing to his bloc’s electoral resilience.
The election outcome reflects a deeply divided electorate, with neither side commanding a decisive mandate. Political analysts expect intense negotiations ahead, with possibilities ranging from forming a unity government to more fragmented coalition arrangements or even the possibility of new elections. Historically, government formation after closely contested elections in Israel has varied widely, sometimes taking up to several months.
As the parties prepare for coalition talks, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot face significant challenges in balancing ideological differences within their blocs and overcoming historic divides in Israeli society. The coming weeks will be critical in determining Israel’s political direction amid ongoing regional tensions and internal pressures.