A hot and dry summer in the UK is expected to produce a vibrant but potentially unpredictable autumn foliage display, according to experts at the National Trust. Despite early signs of leaf browning and premature drop caused by drought stress, the organisation remains cautiously optimistic about the prospects for colourful autumn scenery, particularly if cooler and more stable weather arrives in the coming weeks.

Luke Barley, senior national specialist in trees and woodland at the National Trust, noted that while the intense summer sun provides some of the conditions needed for striking autumn colours, the prolonged drought has created an unusual and varied situation for trees. Barley emphasized that the traditional indicators used to predict autumn colour are more difficult to interpret this year due to the exceptional weather patterns, adding that the effects of climate change are contributing to increasing unpredictability in seasonal cycles.

In addition to drought, the ongoing super-strength El Niño weather phenomenon could influence the autumn outlook. The National Trust highlighted that wetter and stormier conditions brought by El Niño may result in trees retaining their leaves longer than usual. This extended leaf retention could, however, leave them more susceptible to damage from high winds.

Several National Trust properties reported differing conditions across the country. At Stourhead in Wiltshire, known for its notable autumn displays, mature trees have largely withstood the summer’s challenges and are expected to deliver a good show of seasonal colour. Meanwhile, at Bodnant in Conwy, some birch and maple trees have shed leaves earlier than usual, though a vibrant autumn remains anticipated. Cal Stewart, head gardener at Gibside near Newcastle, forecasted a “rich tapestry of colour,” with red hues expected to dominate, driven by elevated levels of anthocyanins—pigments that help leaves manage intense sunlight.

Beyond trees, gardeners at the National Trust’s 260 gardens reported a mixed response among other plants. Some species entered a state of dormancy during the drought but have since exhibited fresh growth or a secondary bloom following recent wetter weather. The varied impact of this year’s extreme weather highlights how changing climate patterns may continue to affect horticultural and natural cycles in the UK.