The strategic importance of geographical chokepoints in global trade remains as significant today as it was centuries ago, underscoring the persistent interplay between geography and reliance on fossil fuels. The island of Hormuz, located off the coast of Iran, exemplifies this dynamic. Its position at the entrance to the Persian Gulf—a maritime dead end—makes it an essential passage for the vast quantities of oil and gas that underpin modern energy supplies.

Historically, control of such chokepoints has granted disproportionate influence over global commerce. In the early 16th century, the Portuguese recognized Hormuz’s value, seizing it as part of their maritime empire to regulate trade entering and leaving the Persian Gulf. This practice of controlling key maritime routes extended to other narrow passages, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern Red Sea and the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia, vital conduits for shipping bound for China and beyond. Today, Hormuz’s role is arguably even more critical due to the Gulf’s unparalleled concentration of hydrocarbons.

Global dependence on fossil fuels continues to shape the trade landscape, despite hopes of a transition toward renewable energy. Many advanced technologies, including data centers supporting artificial intelligence in the United States, still rely on natural gas or other fossil fuel derivatives. This ongoing dependence challenges notions that energy needs have fully decoupled from extractive industries centered in regions like the Persian Gulf.

Equally enduring is the impact of geography on international trade flows. Although modern consumers can order goods sourced from across the globe with ease, the majority of products are still moved via maritime routes passing through strategic chokepoints such as Gibraltar, the English Channel, and Hormuz. The difference from earlier centuries lies in the cost and security of shipping. Today’s shipping expenses represent a fraction of what they once were, owing to technological improvements in vessel design, infrastructure enhancements such as dredged canals, and, crucially, the enforcement of freedom of navigation by naval powers like the United Kingdom and the United States over the past two centuries.

This reduction in transportation costs has transformed global economic patterns. Regions like Britain experienced deindustrialization in favor of cheaper imports from abroad, supported by a shipping system that facilitates the movement of roughly £500 billion worth of goods at any one time across the world’s oceans. An illustrative example is the journey of North Sea fish, which is often frozen and sent to China for processing before returning as finished products like fish fingers—sometimes traveling tens of thousands of miles in the process, purely for cost efficiency.

The oil industry has witnessed a similar geographic reorganization. Instead of refining crude oil close to extraction sites, many refiners are now situated far from the source, focusing on specific petroleum products and leveraging low-cost shipping to balance supply chains worldwide.

Throughout these developments, global trade has hinged on the assumption of uninterrupted maritime passage. Any threat to the security of strategic chokepoints like Hormuz could have far-reaching consequences for the flow of goods and energy, highlighting the continued vulnerability posed by geographic constraints.

Reflecting on the early 20th century, economist John Maynard Keynes described the pre-World War I era as an “economic Eldorado” where consumers could effortlessly access a wealth of global products. The subsequent wars and disruptions underscored how fragile global trade networks could be when challenged. Today, the persistent significance of geographical factors and fossil fuel reliance serves as a reminder that despite advances in technology and globalization, the physical realities of the world continue to shape economic fortunes.