Former Chancellor George Osborne has reflected on the political and economic consequences of Brexit, shifts in party support, and the challenges facing the Conservative Party as it seeks to regain power. Speaking recently, Osborne emphasized the need for the United Kingdom to reconsider its trade and investment relationship with the European continent, suggesting that rejoining the customs union could be a pragmatic step. He noted that unlike full membership in the single market, returning to the customs union would not require accepting free movement of people—an issue that remains politically sensitive in Britain.
Osborne also critiqued Brexiteers for what he described as a lack of foresight regarding defence cooperation with European nations. He pointed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a pivotal moment that shifted public opinion on security matters, underscoring the UK’s close security ties with Europe.
Reflecting on his tenure as chancellor during the coalition government with Liberal Democrats, Osborne defended his legacy amid ongoing criticism from the political left, particularly over austerity measures. He argued that, by comparison with the disruption caused by Brexit and the instability of subsequent governments led by Liz Truss and Sir Keir Starmer, the coalition provided a model of stable governance. “People now look back on that six years of government now and say, ‘Wow!’… compared to everything that has happened since,” he stated.
Turning to electoral dynamics, Osborne observed a significant realignment of party voter bases following Brexit. He described how the Conservative Party has traded its traditional middle-class support for working-class voters, while Labour has shifted from a working-class to a predominantly middle-class electorate. This transformation, he said, has not yet been fully acknowledged by either party.
Osborne expressed caution about the Conservative Party’s prospects of reclaiming power. While he acknowledged the leadership qualities of current Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and her growing public profile, he questioned the party’s strategy in appealing to voters. He highlighted a reversal in the traditional demographic of Tory supporters: "When I was Conservative chancellor, one of the leading indicators of whether you were a Conservative voter was that you had a college degree. Right now... one of the leading indicators is you don’t have a college degree.” Osborne suggested that abandoning the university-educated portion of the electorate may be counterproductive.
On potential alliances, Osborne downplayed current Tory denials of a pact with the Reform Party, arguing that some form of cooperation is likely after the next election if no party wins an outright majority. He noted that a Conservative–Reform coalition could command a majority in the House of Commons and predicted such a partnership would be “realistically” formed. When asked about who might lead such a government, Osborne raised the possibility—one that some Conservatives may find unsettling—that Reform leader Nigel Farage could become prime minister with tacit Tory support, depending on election results.
Osborne also expressed admiration for Andy Burnham’s performance as Prime Minister of Greater Manchester, praising Burnham’s enthusiasm and positive outlook. In a more personal reflection, he commented sympathetically on Lord Peter Mandelson’s recent public difficulties, including a widely reported incident outside Osborne’s London home. Osborne criticized the media’s harsh treatment of public figures during moments of crisis, drawing parallels to the recent death of Cambridge professor Jason Arday amid media scrutiny.
Finally, Osborne spoke appreciatively about his current focus on cultural heritage, expressing particular pride in the Bayeux Tapestry, noting its continued historical significance and emotional impact upon viewing.