One hundred and ten years ago this month, the Battle of the Somme began with a devastating assault along British trenches near the River Somme in northern France. On July 1, 1916, British forces launched an advance after a week of heavy artillery fire, only to encounter intact German defenses. The result was catastrophic: 60,000 British casualties in a single day, marking the deadliest day in British military history. By the end of World War I, combat and civilian casualties worldwide had reached approximately 40 million.
Reflecting on this history, historian Odd Arne Westad, in his new book "The Coming Storm," raises a pressing contemporary question: if a major conflict involving great powers erupted tomorrow, what preparations exist to protect the American population? This question is often overlooked despite the devastating impact war can have, combining the destructive effects of natural disasters, pandemics, and infrastructure collapse simultaneously.
Experts in disaster management warn that a future war could trigger cascading crises—cyberattacks disrupting hospitals and communications networks, widespread misinformation including fabricated emergency orders, and breakdowns in government response. Unlike previous conflicts, modern warfare transcends geographical boundaries; cyber and autonomous technologies enable enemies to strike across oceans without traditional military deployments.
Historically, the United States has been geographically insulated from war by friendly neighbors and vast oceans. However, advances in technology have eroded this protection, eliminating the sense of detachment many Americans have felt from global conflicts. At the same time, there is no comprehensive national framework to safeguard civilians in a prolonged great power war. Federal, state, and local agencies lack coordinated plans to address simultaneous and sustained attacks on critical infrastructure.
New York City, with its dense population and global prominence, exemplifies a metropolitan area at particular risk. Although emergency management teams regularly prepare for natural disasters and isolated crises, existing plans do not fully account for adversaries capable of complex, multi-sector attacks lasting weeks or months.
During the Cold War, civil defense measures—including warning systems and public drills—were widely implemented as a means of preparing the population for potential conflict. These efforts recognized that national defense entails both military readiness and civilian protection. However, such public preparedness initiatives have largely disappeared in recent decades.
The call to reinvigorate civil defense planning comes amid growing concerns about complacency in government and society. While leaders seek to prevent a large-scale war, relying solely on hope without concrete preparation leaves populations vulnerable. Urgent discussion and planning are needed to rebuild civil defense capabilities and integrate them into modern emergency management efforts.
Experts emphasize that developing these plans must begin during peacetime, as any delay could leave the nation unprepared for the scale and complexity of a future great power conflict. The memory of past sacrifices, such as those on the Somme, serves not only as a memorial but as a stark warning of the consequences of being unprepared.