Glencore is set to commence trading on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) next Wednesday through CHESS Depositary Interests (CDIs), marking a secondary listing alongside major Australian miners BHP and Rio Tinto. The move has prompted analysts to re-examine Glencore’s valuation in comparison to its ASX-listed peers.

UBS analysts highlight that despite improving commodity diversification, robust cash generation, and promising medium-term returns, all three companies currently trade below their long-term averages for enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA). This suggests that the market valuations may not fully reflect the companies’ operational strengths and growth prospects.

For the current financial year, Glencore’s EBITDA is projected to reach $US21.3 billion ($30.5 billion), with copper expected to contribute about 30 percent of its earnings, increasing to 50 percent by 2030. This shift indicates a strategic move away from reliance on thermal coal. By comparison, BHP’s EBITDA is expected to remain above $US30 billion through 2030, supported by the scale and resilience of its asset base. Rio Tinto is forecast to increase EBITDA from $US25.6 billion in fiscal 2026 to $US33.5 billion by fiscal 2030, driven by projects such as the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia, the Simandou iron ore development in Guinea, aluminium assets, and lithium operations.

Recent market shifts, including a decline in iron ore prices, have influenced the fair values of these stocks based on current commodity prices. For instance, Australian iron ore miner Mineral Resources holds a spot fair value of $69 per share, while Rio Tinto’s fair value has fallen to $175 amid lower copper and iron ore prices. BHP’s fair value, on the other hand, has increased to $68 per share, buoyed by copper prices surpassing UBS’s long-term assumptions.

UBS analysts point to Glencore’s marketing division as a distinctive element that sets it apart from BHP and Rio Tinto. This division provides earnings diversification that may perform differently across commodity cycles, potentially reducing volatility for the company.

Despite positive earnings trends and growth exposure, Glencore’s enterprise value to EBITDA ratio remains low, trading at 4.6 times for fiscal 2027 and expected to decline to 3.9 times by 2030, well below its 10-year average of 7.8. BHP trades at higher multiples of 8.3 times for 2027 and 7.2 times by 2030, while Rio Tinto stands at 7.8 times in 2027 falling to 6.2 times by 2030, both also below their respective 10-year averages.

Glencore’s secondary ASX listing does not include any capital raising and is largely aimed at attracting Australian superannuation funds and retail investors. The company’s market capitalisation on the London Stock Exchange currently stands at about £66 billion ($125 billion), representing a near 40 percent increase this year. By contrast, Rio Tinto’s market value is approximately $167 billion and BHP’s is $316 billion.

Glencore is one of the largest global producers of coal and copper, with significant mining interests across a wide range of commodities including cobalt, nickel, zinc, lead, ferroalloys, aluminium, iron ore, gold, and silver. Industry reports have suggested that Glencore may consider acquiring BHP’s coal business, BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), through a share exchange after its ASX listing, followed by a potential demerger of the combined coal assets. Additionally, there remains speculation about a possible revival of merger discussions with Rio Tinto after talks collapsed nearly a year ago.