Glencore’s trading division is poised to report a significant boost in earnings amid heightened volatility in global energy markets, according to a recent second-quarter production update. The Swiss commodities giant expects adjusted earnings of $3.3 billion for the first half of 2026, more than doubling its performance from the previous year and substantially exceeding the $2.2 billion consensus forecast among analysts.
The surge in profits marks the highest level for Glencore’s market division since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a conflict that similarly disrupted commodity markets. The current volatility has been intensified by the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East from late February and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor responsible for transporting around 20% of global oil and gas supplies. Such conditions have led to significant price fluctuations, creating opportunities for trading firms like Glencore.
Glencore, listed on the London Stock Exchange and valued at approximately £61.3 billion, is one of the world’s leading commodity traders and miners. Last year, the company sold 751 million barrels of oil and gas products and reported a net profit of $363 million, recovering from a $1.6 billion loss in 2024 associated with impairment charges. The company’s mining operations include coal, copper, and cobalt production.
Despite the strong performance reported by the trading arm, Glencore has chosen not to revise its full-year guidance. Analysts at RBC Capital characterized this decision as “curious,” given the unusually robust half-year figures. The company recorded a 15% increase in copper output during the first half of 2026, reaching 397,000 tonnes, and maintained its full-year copper production forecast between 810,000 and 870,000 tonnes. The Collahuasi mine in Chile is expected to contribute more significantly in the latter half of the year.
Copper demand remains a critical driver, particularly given its role in the global energy transition. The metal’s importance has also spurred mergers and acquisitions within the mining sector. Glencore itself was involved in a proposed $260 billion merger with Rio Tinto, which would have created the largest mining company worldwide. However, the deal fell through earlier this year due to a failure by both parties to agree on valuation. Negotiations, which began in 2024 and were revisited in late 2025, ultimately proved unsuccessful.
Following the collapse of the merger, Glencore’s CEO Gary Nagle urged investors to pressure mining companies to pursue corporate consolidations, describing the sector’s current size as relatively inconsequential individually. Analysts suggest that Glencore remains a potential takeover target, noting that divesting less desirable assets and highlighting the value of core operations could increase the likelihood of future bids.
Other commodity traders have also reported strong half-year results in 2026. Trafigura, for instance, posted a net profit of just over $4 billion, despite only factoring in one month of impact from the Middle East conflict. Mercuria recorded an 88% rise in half-year profits, reaching $1.09 billion. These figures underline a broader trend of windfall gains for trading firms amid ongoing geopolitical and market instability.
Glencore is scheduled to release its full half-year results on August 5.