Global air cargo traffic is expected to double over the next two decades, driving a substantial expansion of the world’s dedicated freighter fleet, according to Boeing’s latest forecast. The aerospace company projects that the global fleet of freighter aircraft will grow by 67%, increasing from 2,395 planes in 2025 to more than 4,000 by 2045.

The forecast, released during The International Air Cargo Association’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami, attributes this growth to rising e-commerce volumes, efforts to diversify supply chains, and surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) hardware. Boeing estimates commercial carriers will need to acquire nearly 3,000 new or converted freighters over the next 20 years. Of these deliveries, 55% will expand freight capacity while 45% will replace aging and less efficient aircraft. Converted passenger planes are expected to make up about two-thirds of the new freighter additions, with the remainder coming from new-production models designed specifically for cargo.

Boeing anticipates air cargo traffic to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5%, surpassing broader economic and global trade growth. Trade routes linked to Asia are forecast to account for approximately 60% of global air trade activity, reflecting the region’s prominent role in manufacturing and distribution networks.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, the air cargo sector demonstrated resilience in recent years. Global air freight reached a record volume in 2025, expanding close to 5% from the previous year. The rapid adoption of advanced technologies has been highlighted as a key factor supporting this momentum. Data from the International Air Transport Association indicates that more than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air freight in 2025, underscoring air cargo's role in moving high-value, time-sensitive products.

Boeing emphasized the strategic advantages of air cargo’s speed and flexibility in adapting to shifting trade patterns. Dedicated main-deck freighters are predicted to transport over half of the global air cargo over the long term. Although air freight makes up less than 1% of global trade volume, it accounts for approximately one-third of trade value due to the nature of the goods, which often require rapid delivery and careful handling.

Airlines that combine cargo carried in passenger aircraft bellies with dedicated freighters account for nearly one-third of total air cargo revenue, facilitating extensive route networks. Express services and time-definite operators, including integrators, are expected to increase their share of global air traffic to nearly 25% by 2045.

In 2025, the air cargo industry—comprising both dedicated freighter operators and passenger airlines with cargo services—generated about $170 billion in revenue, representing the majority of earnings within the broader air logistics sector.