Global temperatures are projected to rise at least 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report underscores that overshooting this threshold is now unavoidable in the coming years, despite some progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The UNEP report, titled *Limiting Overshoot*, highlights the severe consequences of increased global heating, warning that every fraction of a degree above 1.5°C will intensify extreme weather events, accelerate glacier melt, exacerbate ecosystem loss, and lead to the submersion of islands and coastal cities. It projects that warming up to 3°C could result in glaciers losing over a quarter of their mass by 2100, with consequent sea level rises of up to 13 centimeters. Additionally, global food production may decline by as much as 14% by 2050 absent adequate adaptation strategies.

The report emphasizes that the best chance to mitigate these impacts lies in adopting an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway. This approach involves immediate and significant cuts in fossil fuel emissions combined with enhanced efforts to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, such as through reforestation. The authors stress that achieving net zero emissions remains an essential milestone, not to be replaced by carbon removal efforts but pursued alongside them.

Despite the forecasted overshoot, the report suggests that it remains technically feasible to return global temperatures to 1.5°C this century, provided the warming peak remains below about 1.8°C and emissions are halved by 2035. Without stronger policies, however, current national commitments are projected to lead to warming of at least 2.3°C by mid-century, with potentially catastrophic outcomes.

The UNEP executive director, Inger Andersen, drew attention to recent record-breaking heatwaves, wildfires, and droughts as early signs of climate change impacts occurring faster and more intensely than anticipated. She called for urgent and determined action, emphasizing that every fraction of a degree avoided and each year of shortened overshoot will preserve lives, ecosystems, and economies.

Several report authors, including Professor Debra Roberts, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, noted that current climate governance frameworks are inadequate for managing an overshoot scenario. Roberts called for reconfiguration of policies to include bold adaptation measures that protect infrastructure, livelihoods, and social support systems, while continuing emission reductions and carbon removal.

The report has elicited concern and calls for intensified political will, particularly from Pacific island nations vulnerable to rising seas. Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr., hosting a regional summit with leaders including Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, described the findings as a pivotal moment needing unprecedented investment in climate resilience.

However, some critics, such as Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, argued that the report insufficiently emphasizes the need to phase out fossil fuels and risks fostering resignation rather than mobilizing action. Climate activists have stressed that exceeding 1.5°C should not be viewed as a license to abandon ambitions but rather a call to accelerate efforts.

The report arrives amid growing international acknowledgment that the planet is entering a new phase of climate risk management, where overshoot is no longer hypothetical but impending, requiring both mitigation and adaptation at an unprecedented scale and speed.