Global trade, which has faced significant challenges in recent years due to rising protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and a slowdown in manufacturing, showed stronger-than-expected growth in 2025, according to QNB’s latest economic analysis. This rebound was largely driven by increased demand for artificial intelligence (AI) related goods and investments, which helped offset the impacts of higher U.S. tariffs and ongoing policy uncertainty.

Despite persistent headwinds, several underlying factors are contributing to the renewed support for cross-border trade flows. These include a robust investment cycle in advanced technologies, a normalization of manufacturing activity, and sustained dynamism in emerging market trade networks. Forward-looking indicators suggest this momentum is carrying into 2026, supporting expectations of continued expansion.

Export performance in highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam remained strong, with growth accelerating in recent months and showing limited effects from ongoing trade tensions. Investor sentiment in the transportation sector, as reflected by the Dow Jones Transportation Average, has also improved, signaling expanding trade activity.

QNB highlighted three key drivers behind this positive outlook. First, the emerging investment cycle in AI significantly influenced global trade in 2025, with AI-related goods accounting for roughly half of merchandise trade growth. Products like semiconductors, data center equipment, and advanced electronics saw surging demand, and global semiconductor sales alone reached an estimated $520–$550 billion. The highly globalized and import-intensive nature of AI supply chains, which rely on complex cross-border production networks, underpins this trend. Continued strength in AI investment is projected to add approximately 0.5 percentage points to global trade growth in 2026, counterbalancing geopolitical and policy-related challenges.

Second, the ongoing reconfiguration of global supply chains has helped sustain trade levels amid increasingly restrictive trade policies, including non-tariff measures favoring domestic production. Rather than reducing trade volumes, companies are redirecting flow patterns. Asia remains central to global manufacturing, accounting for nearly 60% of output, while intra-regional trade is expanding. Countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and India are gaining market share in key export sectors. China’s exports to ASEAN countries have more than doubled over the past decade, surpassing $500 billion annually, reflecting the rising importance of regional production networks.

Third, cyclical conditions have improved as the global manufacturing cycle stabilizes and the drag from inventory adjustments diminishes. Global trade volumes grew by approximately 4.6% in 2025, driven by a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in industrial activity. The earlier phase of inventory destocking, which suppressed trade through 2023 and early 2024, has largely ended, with firms now gradually rebuilding inventories. This shift is increasing import demand, particularly in machinery, electronics, and intermediate goods, where cross-border production remains deeply embedded. Manufacturing surveys and export orders also indicate stabilizing external demand, reinforcing the cyclical recovery.

While geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty continue to pose risks, QNB’s analysis concludes that the combination of structural and cyclical factors is supporting global trade momentum. The strength of AI-driven investment, manufacturing stabilization, and adaptive global supply chains contribute to an outlook of continued trade expansion through 2026.