Global trade set for 4% growth in 2026: UNCTAD

By the Editorial Team · Monday, October 12, 2026

Global trade in goods and services is expected to grow by about 4% in 2026, following a record $35 trillion trade volume in 2025, driven mainly by higher prices rather than increased physical trade. This growth occurs amid geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and China, ongoing inflation, and shifting supply chains, which pose risks to sustained trade expansion.

Global trade in goods and services is projected to increase by approximately 4% in 2026, building on a record $35 trillion in trade volume recorded in 2025, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The agency highlighted that this anticipated growth primarily reflects rising prices rather than a substantial expansion in the physical volume of goods and services exchanged.

In 2025, global trade expanded by 4.7%, reaching its highest-ever value. However, UNCTAD pointed to ongoing challenges such as geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and inflationary pressures that could impede further growth. Trade dynamics are notably shifting amid strained relations between the United States and China, with bilateral trade between the two countries contracting by more than 20% since 2024.

At the same time, East Asian economies have increased their trade engagements with both China and North America, signaling adjustments in global supply chains. Developed nations have secured roughly 70% of announced foreign investment projects in strategic and high-value sectors from 2020 through 2025, focusing on areas like semiconductors, energy transition technologies, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Conversely, developing countries have predominantly led investment in critical minerals and strategic materials, accounting for 60% of new foreign direct investment in these sectors.

UNCTAD also forecasted a global economic growth rate of 2.6% for 2026, a slight decline from 2.9% in 2025. The report underscored that energy shocks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have intensified pressures on fuel-import-dependent developing economies. The rising costs disproportionately impact poorer households, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in these regions.

Emerging technologies related to AI are becoming significant drivers of global trade, influencing trade flows and investment priorities. Despite the optimistic growth outlook, the interplay of geopolitical tensions, inflation, and economic risks may continue to challenge stable trade expansion in the coming year.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.