Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is confronting growing dissatisfaction among voters in his traditionally secure inner-Sydney electorate of Grayndler, according to recent polling. A survey conducted by conservative group Advance from September 23 to 24 indicates a significant decline in Labor’s primary vote, reflecting local discontent over issues such as the cost-of-living crisis, housing affordability, approval of coal and gas projects, and the government's handling of the situation in Gaza.
The poll of 956 voters revealed Labor’s primary support has dropped nearly 14 percentage points since the last federal election, falling from 53.54% to around 40%. When factoring in the anticipated candidacy of left-wing independent Hannah Ferguson, the race is expected to tighten beyond the usual contest between Labor and the Greens. A hypothetical head-to-head match-up between Albanese and Ferguson showed the prime minister leading with 56% preferred vote compared to Ferguson’s 44%, after excluding undecided respondents.
The Greens also present a strong challenge in Grayndler, with the survey showing Labor ahead by a narrower margin than usual. In a two-party context, Albanese holds 50% support against 31% for the Greens, with 20% unsure. These figures suggest a shifting dynamic in the electorate, historically a Labor stronghold, but now increasingly contested by progressive independents and environmentalist candidates.
Advance executive director Matthew Sheahan noted the poll highlights difficulties Albanese faces appealing to voters across the political spectrum. “Voters are rallying against him,” Sheahan said, pointing to dissatisfaction both from center-right constituents concerned over economic and immigration policies and from center-left voters unhappy with climate and foreign policy stances. He emphasized that the emergence of an independent candidate disrupts traditional voting patterns, making Grayndler a potentially competitive seat heading into the 2028 federal election.
Concerns related to the cost of living and housing were cited as the most significant reasons for voter dissatisfaction, with 28% identifying these as key issues. Approval of new coal and gas projects followed at 20%, while 16% cited the government’s handling of Gaza. Other factors included immigration levels (13%) and defense spending and the AUKUS security pact (7%).
Separately, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson announced the launch of a new campaign titled "What’s Holding You Back," aiming to engage voters nationwide on their key challenges and policy suggestions ahead of the next federal election. Hanson expressed intentions to use public feedback to shape the party’s platform, criticizing current governments for lacking long-term visions.
Political strategists from both Labor and the Liberal National Party are closely monitoring developments, especially in Queensland, where the retirement of Capricornia MP Michelle Landry is expected to trigger a highly competitive race. One Nation’s growing influence in the state, particularly in rural and regional areas, poses an additional challenge to established parties, with concerns that it could significantly impact Senate ticket outcomes.
As the next federal election approaches, the polling in Grayndler signals that Albanese may face his most difficult re-election campaign to date, even within his own electorate.