European leaders are confronting an urgent imperative to accelerate the continent’s strategic autonomy amid increasing global instability and shifting transatlantic dynamics. A recent analysis by the European Council on Foreign Relations characterizes the current situation as a “Schrödinger’s NATO” moment, highlighting the paradox of the United States remaining formally committed to NATO while exhibiting signs of diminishing engagement. This comes as Russia’s aggressive intentions continue to challenge European security.
The push for enhanced defense independence has faced significant hurdles, illustrated by the recent collapse of a major multibillion-euro initiative to develop a next-generation fighter jet under the Future Combat Air System program. Launched in 2017 by France and Germany, the project was to be a landmark collaboration in European defense technology. However, disagreements between French aerospace firm Dassault and the German-based Airbus Defence and Space over technology sharing and leadership roles led to the initiative’s termination this month. Spain, which was also involved, criticized the fallout, with Defence Minister Margarita Robles expressing concern that industrial interests had been prioritized over Europe’s collective security needs.
France’s prominent role in European defense has been a longstanding feature, but the country faces constraints in pursuing modernization alone given the current geopolitical landscape marked by great power competition and rapid technological changes in warfare. Germany and other EU members, as well as the United Kingdom outside the EU, similarly lack the capacity to independently drive such defense advancements. This raises the risk of continued dependence on U.S. military technology, as exemplified by the widespread use of the American F-35 fighter jets, which are contingent on U.S. approval. Reports of U.S. pressure on Italy regarding the development of an AI-based air defense system known as the “Michelangelo Dome” underscore Washington’s intent to maintain its strategic influence.
In response, Brussels has taken initial steps toward increased coordination. The EU unveiled its first European Defence Industrial Strategy in 2024 and established the Security Action for Europe mechanism, allocating €150 billion in low-interest loans to support defense modernization efforts. To build on this foundation, officials advocate for greater use of pan-European funding tools that could relieve national budget pressures and incentivize projects prioritizing joint development and industrial consolidation.
Not all collaboration depends solely on EU frameworks. For instance, a multilateral defense financing initiative led by the United Kingdom in partnership with Finland and the Netherlands is emerging as a complementary model to enhance European military capabilities.
As the G7 summit convenes in Evian, European governments are actively seeking to encourage the United States to exert increased diplomatic pressure on Russia regarding the conflict in Ukraine. While such efforts remain necessary, many analysts argue that achieving lasting security will require substantial changes in Europe’s defense posture to reduce reliance on external powers and foster greater self-sufficiency.