Voting is underway in the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection, the largest such contest in recent British political history, with more than two million eligible voters selecting the successor to Andy Burnham. The byelection, held on July 30, follows Burnham’s election as prime minister in June, which required him to vacate his position as mayor of Greater Manchester, the most influential combined authority outside London.
Labour candidate Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester city council, is widely expected to secure a comfortable victory in a race that, despite its scale, has largely been overshadowed by Burnham’s rapid rise to national leadership. Craig has been boosted by what political analysts describe as a “Burnham bounce” in the polls, with recent surveys indicating a significant lead over Reform UK’s Sian Astley. A More in Common poll published on Tuesday showed Craig holding a 20-point advantage, although most of that survey was conducted before Burnham’s appointment as prime minister.
The contest operates under the supplementary voting system, allowing voters to select a first and second preference. If no candidate surpasses 50%, second-choice votes are counted. This system tends to favor Labour, which is often the second choice of Green, Liberal Democrat, and some Conservative voters. Reform UK is viewed as less likely to benefit from such cross-party transfers.
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, had been considered a potential contender for the mayoralty earlier in the campaign. However, Farage’s focus has shifted to a parliamentary byelection in Clacton, Essex, where he is competing against numerous candidates. The party’s projected support has declined nationally in recent weeks amid scrutiny of Farage’s funding sources and internal challenges.
The Greater Manchester byelection is seen as a critical test for all major parties ahead of local elections next May, when a third of council seats in the region’s 10 boroughs will be contested. Reform UK aims to expand its influence in councils such as Bolton, Wigan, and Rochdale, while the Green Party seeks to build on gains within Manchester city council, where it is now the second largest party after Labour.
The Greens, who received 7% of the vote in the last mayoral election in 2024, hope to significantly increase their share, particularly beyond Manchester city centre, where they have made recent breakthroughs in traditionally Labour-held areas. Green sources contend that current polling underestimates their broader support.
Despite the importance and size of the byelection, voter awareness appears limited, which campaigners warn could affect turnout and complicate polling accuracy. The final result is expected to be announced tomorrow afternoon.