The Green Energy Oman (GEO) project, a major green hydrogen and ammonia initiative in the Sultanate of Oman, is advancing toward its goal of supplying competitively priced green ammonia to European markets in the early 2030s. The project consortium, which includes Shell as the lead operating partner with a 35 percent stake, OQ Alternative Energy, InterContinental Energy (ICE), EnerTech of Kuwait, and Golden Wellspring Wealth for Trading LLC, anticipates that the venture will significantly reduce production costs over the next decade.
Alex Tancock, CEO of Singapore-based InterContinental Energy, highlighted the growing demand in Europe for low-carbon ammonia, driven largely by the region’s decarbonization efforts and regulatory frameworks such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This mechanism is expected to boost demand for cleaner industrial feedstocks, positioning GEO to become a key supplier.
At full capacity, GEO aims to produce approximately 1.8 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually, with the initial phase targeting around 200,000 tonnes per year. Much of this early output is expected to serve European markets. Tancock emphasized that Shell, as the lead operator, is well-versed in the regulatory landscape and confident in the project’s ability to offer competitive pricing within a substantial market.
The long-term strategy underpinning the project focuses on leveraging abundant renewable energy resources, particularly wind and solar, in jurisdictions with stable investment climates and infrastructure capable of operating independently from national power grids. According to Tancock, such conditions have become increasingly favorable, enabling significant cost reductions in green ammonia production.
InterContinental Energy projects free on board (FOB) prices for green ammonia of roughly $600 per tonne in the early 2030s, decreasing to about $500 per tonne by the mid-2030s, and eventually reaching around $400 per tonne in the early 2040s. These figures represent a notable decline compared to previous years when production costs often exceeded $1,000 per tonne. Technological advancements and falling renewable energy costs are cited as key factors driving this improvement.
Tancock also identified recent geopolitical developments as reinforcing the economic rationale for the GEO project by encouraging supply chain diversification and reducing reliance on traditional energy exporters. Beyond the fertiliser market, emerging uses of ammonia—such as marine fuel for shipping decarbonization—are expected to become significant drivers of future demand.
Looking forward, GEO is positioned to play a substantial role in supplying green ammonia not only for the fertiliser sector but also for expanding clean energy applications throughout the 2030s and 2040s.
